New Mexico Daily Snow

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By Julien Ross, Forecaster Posted 3 months ago November 22, 2023

Snow arrives Friday, and Red River opening day

Summary

Red River will enjoy gorgeous sunny skies for opening day on Wednesday. Thanksgiving Day will be a more cloudy transition day. Our next storm arrives Friday afternoon and hangs around through Saturday morning. We are on track for 1-5" at lower elevation mountains and 4-8" higher up above 11,000 ft in the northern mountains. A new storm off the Baja coast could bring light snow on Monday.

Short Term Forecast

Happy opening day for Red River on Wednesday, November 22nd! Ski Santa Fe and Taos Ski Valley follow with November 23rd openings.

Opening Dates (check resort websites and social media for the latest updates):

Angel Fire: December 15
Pajarito: December 22 
Red River: OPEN
Sandia Peak: TBD
Ski Apache: December 25
Ski Santa Fe: November 23 
Sipapu: OPEN Nov. 17-Nov. 26; Closed Nov. 27 – Nov. 30; Open Dec. 1-3; Closed Dec. 4-7
Taos: November 23

Wednesday will be 10-15 degrees warmer than Tuesday with sunny blue skies.

For Thanksgiving Day clouds will start to move in ahead of our next storm arriving Friday.

Snow showers should start around midday or early afternoon in the northern mountains on Friday.

In Tuesday's post, we discussed 1-5" at lower elevation mountains in the Jemez and Sangres, and 4-8" higher up above 11,000 ft, by the time the storm exits late Saturday. I don't see many changes in the forecast as of today. 

Here is OpenSnow's downscaled GFS Ensemble liquid precipitation for Red River showing .4" of liquid or about 4-6" of snow from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

The national blend of models is in agreement with .4 to .5" of liquid across the Sangre de Cristos. 

The position of the storm to our north will create southwest winds favoring Wolf Creek on Friday for deep totals. Taos Ski Valley is a wildcard for 8-10" if the southwest winds can reach far enough east before the storm shifts to a more westerly flow late Friday into Saturday.

So to recap, look for 1-5" at lower elevation mountains (Pajarito, Angel Fire, Sipapu, Red River) and 4-8" at higher elevations above 11,000 ft (Ski Santa Fe, Taos). Sandia Peak should get a dusting and Ski Apache is a wildcard for snow flurries but no accumulation expected.

Extended Forecast

After the Friday-Saturday storm exits, Sunday should be a dry transition day. Then I have very low confidence for Monday, November 27th. Models are playing with the idea of a weaker storm forming off the Baja Peninsula that could bring some moisture up into the central mountain chain.

The GFS Ensemble is picking up on this possibility with about two-thirds of the 30 model runs showing some precipitation reaching the northern mountains on Monday into Tuesday.

We will keep a close eye on this development and hopefully, we will see even a few more snowflakes before we ring in December.

I will post again on Thursday with the latest forecast for the November 24-25 storm and how Monday is shaping up as a possible encore storm.

Thanks for reading!

JULIEN ROSS
[email protected]

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New Mexico Geography Key

Northern Mountains
→ Red River, Taos Ski Valley (north side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Angel Fire (northeast side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Sipapu (middle of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Ski Santa Fe (south side of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Pajarito (southwest side of the northern mountains - Jemez)

Central Mountains
→ Sandia Peak (Sandias)
→ Mt. Taylor backcountry (San Mateos)

Southern Mountains
→ Ski Apache (Sacramentos)
→ Ski Cloudcroft (Sacramentos)

About Our Forecaster

Julien Ross

Forecaster

Julien was born and raised in Santa Fe, New Mexico and was introduced to skiing at age 7 through the public schools subsidized ski program at Ski Santa Fe. It was love at first turn and Julien has been chasing deep powder and good mogul lines ever since. Julien grew up fascinated by weather and studied physical geography with a focus on meteorology at Northern Arizona University in Flagstaff.

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