Current Conditions & Opening Dates

Mt Hutt scored a massive 1.2m of powder from a single storm at the start of May. It was incredible to see such a vast amount of snow so early in the season, and we all thought that moniker, "snow in May never stays", was well and truly dead and buried underneath it all.

The Mt Hutt crew were quick to capitalise on their fortunes and had planned to open early for weekend skiing a couple of weeks ahead of their scheduled opening date of 13th June. But alas, the weather hasn't been kind, with persistent warm northwesters and rain pillaging that early treasure trove. Although the base areas has been left bare of snow, the official snow report still gives 50cm for the upper mountain. So, with a bit of hard yakka from the crew moving snow around, there's still hope Mt Hutt will open this coming weekend, the 7th & 8th June. However, Mother Nature is expected to throw another curveball at them later this week... that's all covered in the weather outlook below.

Further south, the Southern Lakes only received a dusting from that early storm, so it was quick to disappear. A couple of shots of powder since then have left ski fields here with a thin, patchy layer of snow, with the tussock still showing. However, the groomed trails have a slightly more solid covering thanks to the snow guns. Cardrona, Coronet Peak, and The Remarkables are scheduled to open on the 14th June, and Treble Cone on the 27th June.

Turoa and Whakapapa on Mt Ruapehu in the North Island now have facilities open for sightseeing and snow-based activities, but plan to open for skiing from late June, subject to conditions allowing. Other smaller club fields scattered throughout the country will also open as conditions allow, typically from late June through early July. 

Forecast for Monday through Wednesday: A Tasman Storm

Warm northwesters will pick up over the country on Monday and Tuesday as a storm rapidly intensifies and approaches from the North Tasman Sea. The storm centre is expected to pass over central NZ on Wednesday, bringing rain to much of the country, which will likely be heavy over the North Island and upper South Island, including Canterbury, where Mt Hutt will be affected.

By late Wednesday, colder southerly winds on the backside of the storm will make their way up the South Island, dropping snow levels below 1500m (the base level of most ski fields), allowing snow to fall briefly before clearing out Wednesday night.

The forecast remains fairly uncertain, even at this close range, so Wednesday's forecast should shore things up a bit more. Regardless, snowfall figures for the Southern Lakes range from just a couple of centimetres, up to 15-20cm for the upper slopes, while Canterbury ski fields could score around 15-30cm.

Forecast for Thursday through Sunday: Potential Season Starter Snow Storm

On Thursday, a nice n' cold winter storm from the south will roll up the South Island and park up east of the country on Friday, where it'll linger for a time before eventually moving out on Sunday or Monday.

For the South Island, snowfall will likely start lightly on Thursday before coming down heavily for a time on Friday and/or Saturday as frigid south-southeast winds become very strong. It'll be a full-on blizzard, especially in Canterbury, and snow levels could get as low as 500-600m, where roads and some towns may be affected.

Conditions should start to ease over the Southern Lakes on Saturday and clear up for Sunday. Models aren't picking big numbers here, with a range between 5-20cm, which seems low given the intensity of onshore winds hitting the area. It's still a long way off, mind you, so that could change.

Conditions will ease in Canterbury on Sunday, but may not completely clear until Monday. The ECMWF model is showing the deepest totals compared to other models, with around 40-80cm, which sounds a bit more like it. With Mt Hutt hoping to open this weekend, everyone will be keeping a close eye on this one. Conditions may be too atrocious on Saturday, but Sunday should be a goer at this stage.

Next forecast will be Wednesday. See you then.

Mike O'Connor