We will see a trough drop down the northern Rockies and bring cold air into Utah later this weekend into early next week. Snowfall, however, will be limited. Generally dry conditions should prevail into early November.
Short Term Forecast
The weather this week has been very seasonable, a couple of warmer days, followed by a weak system that cooled us down again. It got so cold Thursday morning at Peter Sinks, UT, that it was the coldest spot in the contiguous U.S. so far this Autumn at -14F.
(Notice the triple digit temps in CA. This is a weather pattern that is fueling Santa Ana winds that are spreading rapid wild fires on very dry vegetation.)
We should gradually warm up today and tomorrow, then cold air will plunge south into the intermountain west later this weekend. Sunday should be cold, with continuing cold weather into early next week. You can see the cold airmass below:
Similar to what happened earlier this month, the coldest air and best moisture will be to our east on the other side of the continental divide.
As for precipitation, it should be scant with only minor amounts, confined mostly to the higher terrain. The GFS is very frugal with totals. Here is QPF (liquid forecasted):
And when converted to snow, it's even less impressive...
It should be noted that the the above images are from the GFS. The Euro is slightly less dry. But in this case it would be the difference between a dusting of snow in the GFS and maybe an inch or two in the Euro. Either way, this storm is a small one that isn't really going to do much for us.
I did see that PCMR started making snow yesterday! This cold weather will give resorts a solid few days to make snow if they so choose. We may be warming back up again later next week. You remember that old idiom, "Make hay while the 700mb temps are subfreezing".
High pressure should take control for the end of October and first week of November. Not really many signs of a pattern change just yet. We could be looking toward mid-November before we see anything of substance. I will continue to monitor.
Next update will be Monday, October 28.
Daily updates will commence on November 1, regardless of weather patterns.
Evan | OpenSnow
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