Saturday & Sunday 

We'll see sunny skies and milder temps on Saturday in the upper 30's and low 40's. Winds should remain on the lighter end.

By Sunday the temps really start to drop into the low 30's and the Southwest winds pick up ahead of our storm. Gusts up to 40 MPH are possible during the day, so it will feel quite cold out on the mtns. 

Most of the models bring in the storm later in the day on Sunday and into Monday morning. 

Sunday Night - Monday 

Our storm is on the way and boy it's going to be a cold one. You can see the 10K FT level temps below:

NAM 12KM 700mb Temps 

By Monday morning they will be -12C, which is 10F at 10K FT, so at the resort level that's in the teens. Snow levels will be low and approaching 3K FT Monday afternoon. 

I'm expecting the heaviest snowfall to be Sunday night into Monday mid-day with snow showers wrapping it up Monday night. Monday the winds look to be more out of the East and they shouldn't top more than about 20 MPH. 

Precip Amounts

I'm showing the precip totals through Tuesday for the GFS, Euro, and WPC models below. Definitely some notable differences...

GFS

Euro

WPC

The main difference is that the GFS has about a third of the precip of the Euro and in many places about half as much as the WPC. So with that in mind there's not as much model consensus as I was hoping to see.

I'm going to be cautious with my snowfall forecast as I don't quite trust inch plus totals of the Euro and I also have more confidence that we see more than 0.30 inches like the GFS suggest. I'm sticking with my 5 - 9 inches across the region as I posted yesterday. 

Tuesday - Wednesday 

The snow showers clear out Monday night so Tuesday should be bright and sunny and that goes for Wednesday too. Temps will be cold on Tuesday though with highs in the mid 20's and only warming into the low 30's for Wednesday. Winds should remain relatively light so the conditions should be excellent for enjoying the fresh snow. 

As I've mentioned several times this past week it's looking more likely that we see dry for the rest of next week and into the following weekend of February 4th & 5th. 

Here's a look the GEFS, Euro Ensemble Means for Mtn. High over the next 10 days:

You can see the big flatline after our storm with only a few small chances going the full 10 days out. 

You can see those chances below on the individual European Ensemble Runs:

Some of the members are showing a shot at light snowfall next Sunday February 5th and Monday the 6th but once again it's not a big chance and the amounts look quite low. The further out we go into February chances look like they increase for more precip... but, and this is a big but, that's really far and if you've been following along you know I don't make a forecast on a model run 2 weeks out. So we'll see how things pan out going into the middle of February 

Till the next one... Mike out.