We finally get out snow starting later Sunday afternoon and lasting through Monday evening. It will be cold as well with below average temps. We stay cold through Wednesday but it gets and should stay dry through the end of the week. We are likely to be in an extended dry period through at least the middle of the 2nd week of February.
Short Term Forecast
Sunday & Monday Snow
Our storm is almost here! There's a winter storm warning already posted for the Big Bear Mtns. Overall the forecast has changed little from yesterday. Still be cold and windy both today and Monday with the majority of the snow falling on Sunday evening into Monday evening.
Temps will be in the low 30's on Sunday and Monday will be even colder with temps struggling to get out of the mid 20's. Winds will gusty out of Southwest on Sunday up to 35 MPH and out of the Southeast and East on Monday up to 20 MPH.
Snow levels may not drop quite a slow throughout the day on Sunday or Monday as originally forecasted, but I'm still expecting all snow down to all the resort bases and down to 3,500 FT by Monday afternoon.
The precip forecast has remained about the same and you can see that the WPC model has come down a little bit from some of the bigger numbers it was showing the other day.
My snowfall forecast I'm sticking with 5 - 9 inches for most places with the exception of Snow Valley which I think could do a little better in this storm and they could see up to 11 inches. Overall though I'm still thinking most places will see less than double digits.
Tuesday - Thursday
We stay quite cold on Tuesday with highs struggling to reach 30's across the resorts. Winds will still be a bit gusty out of the Northeast up to 30 MPH. Wednesday we warm up into the 30's and by Thursday into the 40's. It will be warm and sunny out by then with plenty of good terrain open with the fresh snow.
I've been saying that the models show us going into a drier period after this storm and that continues to be the case. You can really see the dry streak on both graphics below.
The European ensemble runs show very little moisture until the end of the 2nd week of February. There's a slight chance something pops up around the beginning of the week of the 5th but only a few members show and the GFS is not seeing it at all.
I'm thinking it could be an extended dry period for another 7 - 10 days.
I'll keep you posted on the future for storms going into February.
Till the next one... Mike out.