Southern California Daily Snow

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By Mike Korotkin, Meteorologist Posted 2 months ago December 10, 2023

Cut-Off Low Blues

Summary

Most of this week will remain sunny and dry. Highs will go from the 50's to the 40's and then closer to the 50's again by next weekend. A cut-off low will stay off the coast of California and may introduce some wetter weather by later in the weekend. Next week looks more promising for snowfall.

Short Term Forecast

Likely Dry 5 - 7 Days 

Earliest last week the models were showing a storm or set of weak storms that could come through Northern California next weekend, December 15 - 17th. Over the last couple of days, they ended up backtracking on that idea and instead turning the storm(s) into a cut-off low that will sit off the coast through likely next weekend. 

You can see the large area of low pressure off the coast of California by next Saturday morning. It's pinched off from the ridges to the East and West of it. This means it's slow-moving, erratic, and very difficult to accurately predict. 

What does this mean for SoCal? Well depending on the exact track it could mean we could see some rain/snow showers next weekend. But as of right now it's not the most likely outcome.

You can see the forecast through next Saturday, the 16th below. Pretty much dry and sunny weather through Saturday. 

The models are picking up on a chance of rain/snow by Saturday evening. That's associated with the cut-off low and I'll get into more details as we get closer and we can nail down the track of the low. 

Other than that though, the temps will be mild and in the 50's to start the week and drop into the low 40's by the middle of the week and rise back toward 50 by the weekend. There could be a very windy period by this Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Strong Northeast winds up to 35+ MPH could occur especially at places like Mtn. High.  

I'll keep you updated on the track of the cut-off low as we get closer. 

Extended Forecast

The more likely solution is the cut-off low sits mostly off the coast through the weekend and slowly makes it's way into California by early next week. 

You can see the broader area of low pressure showing the low moving into California by next Tuesday, the 20th of December. 

At the end of the day, does this mean we'll see a bunch of rain/snow? No, probably not, but the models do indicate that we could see more rain/snow during the Monday - Thursday period of next week. 

That's better than what the GFS Ensemble runs were showing even a couple of days ago. I won't get into any more specifics about what will happen more than 7 days from now, but I like to think that there's hope for getting even minimal snowfall accumulations before Christmas. 

Till the next one... Mike out. 

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About Our Forecaster

Mike Korotkin

Meteorologist

Mike graduated from UC Berkeley with a Bachelor’s in Atmospheric Science and received his Masters in Atmospheric Science at the University of Nevada Reno. He grew up in Southern California by the beach, but quickly realized he loved the mountains, so his first memories were of the SoCal mountains where he saw snow for the first time. He started skiing in his 20’s and is now an avid skier and backpacker at locations up and down the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

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