Southern California Daily Snow

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By Mike Korotkin, Meteorologist Posted 1 month ago February 23, 2024

Drier Days... Then Soggy Storm


A couple of drier days are still ahead of us through the weekend. We will see clouds over the next few days as the cut-off spins off to our West. By Monday a little storm could come through with higher snow levels and minimal precip, but could drop a few inches of snow. We are still looking towards a colder and potentially more active pattern around the 1st of March.

Short Term Forecast

Through the Weekend 

We will see a mix of clouds and sun over the next few days. We might have more clouds than sun as the cut-off low off the coast spins clouds into our region through the weekend. You can see the set up on the GFS model below. A large negatively tilted ridge is over the West that's blocking all storms and moisture, but an area of low pressure is in the bottom left corner of the image. That's the cut-off that will bring clouds into our region and keep it a little breezy.

Temps will be in the upper 30's and low 40's and winds will be gusty on Saturday into Sunday out of the South-Southwest up to 35 MPH. But we are not likely to see any precip from the cut-off until at the earliest Sunday night as it phases with a trough to our North.  

Monday - Tuesday Morning Storm 

Yesterday we discussed the possibility of rain/snow for our area starting around the Monday timeframe. The overall idea for this storm hasn't changed much, but precip amounts may be lower. The storm might stay further to our North and the cut-off might not directly impact us as prominently as the models showed yesterday. 

Precip Forecast

You can see the precip forecasts below:



The GFS brings in way less precip than it did yesterday and the WPC model is also showing less moisture making it's way to us. That means that our snowfall numbers are going to trend downward today, but this system is still several days away so plenty of time for things to swing back for a heavier event. 

Snow Levels & Snowfall Forecast 

The snow levels are still going to be an issue. We will start with snow levels over 8K FT on Monday morning and the might push down to about the 7,300 FT line by Monday night. Tuesday morning they could bottom out just under 6K FT, so some areas will not see snow to the bases, and some might. The upper elevations on Monday night especially above 8K FT should see a bit of snow. 

My snowfall forecast this morning is for 1 - 4 inches of snow across the region. I'll keep fine-tuning that over the next few days. 

Tuesday could be a windy day as the storm clears out through the early afternoon. We could see gusts up to 40 MPH out of the West on the exposed ridges. But there could also be some fresh snow to ride on, so it might not be a bad day to get after it. 

Extended Forecast

Negative PNA Pattern

We are heading into a negative PNA pattern which you can see by both graphics below shows a large trough over the West & specifically West Coast.  

The biggest difference between the 2 is that the Euro has a stronger trough and it's centered further West. That would imply a better setup for wetter storms, especially for NorCal & the Central Sierra. For the Southern part of the state, it might help with wetter storms but it also might not. It's somewhat hard to say and it really depends on whether a storm spins up in the base of the trough far enough South to deliver moisture across the board to the state. 

You can see on the GFS Ensemble mean plot below that while there is a chance for additional precip starting at the end of next week the amount of liquid isn't a significant amount, so we might be dealing with smaller storms at least initially. 

I'll keep you posted. The one thing that we should get more of by the end of next week into the first week of March is the colder air. That big trough will push colder air into the entire West, so that will help our snowpack regardless. 

Till the next one... Mike out. 


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About Our Forecaster

Mike Korotkin


Mike graduated from UC Berkeley with a Bachelor’s in Atmospheric Science and received his Masters in Atmospheric Science at the University of Nevada Reno. He grew up in Southern California by the beach, but quickly realized he loved the mountains, so his first memories were of the SoCal mountains where he saw snow for the first time. He started skiing in his 20’s and is now an avid skier and backpacker at locations up and down the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

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