Southern California Daily Snow

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By Mike Korotkin, Meteorologist Posted 1 month ago February 24, 2024

A Weaker Storm in the Cards

Summary

We'll see more clouds and wind over the next few days but not precip. The storm for Monday will be on the weaker end of the scale with very limited snowfall potential. We'll go back to a drier pattern for the rest of the work week. By next weekend we could be in a different much colder and chance for a snowier pattern.

Short Term Forecast

Couple Days of Dry & A Day of Wetter Weather 

Below is the OpenSnow blended model forecast for Mtn. High. You can see we have a little bit of cloudy and windy weather over the weekend. Temps will be in the 40's across the region at the resort level so it won't be too cold. The winds on Sunday out of the South-Southwest will gust up to 30 MPH and they could make it feel a little cooler. 

You'll also notice that we have limited chances for precip now on Monday into Tuesday. The storm is likely going to stay further North and be weaker in general for the entire state.

Precip Forecast 

GFS vs. Euro

You can really see the difference in precip between the GFS & Euro above. The GFS puts down a little over a quarter of an inch in most places, while the Euro barely puts any precip down at all anywhere. So either way it's going to be a weaker and moisture-starved system for our region. 

The WPC model below factors in more terrain effect but even with that it's still only showing a tenth to maybe a bullseye of a quarter of an inch at Mt. Baldy. 

Given that precip forecast the snowfall forecast has essentially whittled down to almost nothing. We are still going to deal with higher snow levels in the 7,500 to 8K FT range on Monday and they may drop down to about 7K FT on Monday night. With the limited moisture though it's not likely we'll pick up more than an inch of snow at most places. That's my forecast at this time... 0 - 1 inch of snow across the board by Tuesday morning. 

Tuesday we'll still see gusty winds throughout the day as the storm departs. We could see gusts up to 35 - 40 MPH out of the West-Northwest, especially on the exposed ridges. 

Dry Wednesday 

We'll see a drier day on Wednesday. Temps will be cooler with highs in the upper 30's. We should see winds die down as well for a nice day on the mtn. There won't be any fresh snow but with the cooler temps, the snowpack should hold up at least a bit better. 

Extended Forecast

The pattern change to a negative PNA pattern will likely be our dominating weather starting the middle of next week. 

You can see the forecast on the GFS Ensembles & European Ensembles below:

You'll see the biggest difference is that the European Ensembles are overall stronger than the GFS ones. But they both show a storm around the 1st weekend of March about a week from now. We could see much lower snow levels in this pattern, so that would be a nice change from quite a few of our storms that begin as rain and turn to wet and mushy snow. 

We're still too far out for details on the storm, so we'll see how things develop over the next week. 

Till the next one... Mike out. 

 

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About Our Forecaster

Mike Korotkin

Meteorologist

Mike graduated from UC Berkeley with a Bachelor’s in Atmospheric Science and received his Masters in Atmospheric Science at the University of Nevada Reno. He grew up in Southern California by the beach, but quickly realized he loved the mountains, so his first memories were of the SoCal mountains where he saw snow for the first time. He started skiing in his 20’s and is now an avid skier and backpacker at locations up and down the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

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