Thursday & Friday Dry Weather 

We will continue to see dry weather through the day on Friday. Temps will be in the low 40's at the resorts on Thursday and then drop into the mid 30's by Friday. 

Winds will also be picking up on Friday ahead of the storm. 35 to 45 MPH gusts out of the Southwest are expected so be prepared to bundle up if you're going out since it will feel like winter again. Cloud start rolling in through Friday. 

Friday Night - Sunday Snow

The storm is definitely on track to impact us Friday night into the weekend. Get ready for a nice walloping of rain and snow over our region. While I can't say this with 100% certainty this is almost definitely the last big storm of our winter season. We could see minimal amounts of snow in April before the ski areas close but a storm of this magnitude is highly unlikely. 

Winds will stay gusty on Saturday so be prepared for lift delays or closures due to wind. 30 to 50 MPH gusts are likely out of the South-Southwest. That South-Southwest component is going to favor the Mt. Baldy area as it usually does so you can imagine what the precip graphics are about to tell us... 

Precip Amounts 

GFS

Euro

You'll notice that the GFS is now leaning towards the Euro and bringing heavier precip to the San Gabriel's instead of the Big Bear region. If not more precip it's at least on par, which is what we'd expect given a more South-Southwesterly orientation.

WPC

The WPC with it's higher resolution is really picking up on that bullseye around Mt. Baldy. The precip amounts between the GFS and Euro are in the 1.50 to 2.50 range while the WPC is showing well over 4 inches in some place like Mt. Baldy. So, if I factor that into my forecast we'll see much higher amounts.

Snowfall Forecast 

I'll have one more day to fine-tune this forecast tomorrow morning but here's an updated forecast using the data that I have this morning. Our snow level forecast has not changed much. I'm still expecting them to start right around 6K FT and quickly crash to around 5K FT by early Saturday morning. They will fall throughout the day as the cold air form the low pushes inland. 

They should stay right around 5K FT during any snow showers on Sunday. So snow ratios should be around 8:1 to start and then move closer to 10:1 and maybe even exceed 11:1 during the coldest part of the storm. 

I'm thinking we could see 12 - 20 inches for the Big Bear Mtns. The San Gabriel's could see closer to 14 - 24 inches of snowfall. Mt. Baldy if the higher-end forecasts are correct could see upwards of 2 FT of snow, while Mtn. High could get a respectable 16 or so inches. 

I will update again tomorrow morning. 

Next week we will be high and dry for the most part. Temps will be on the rise as well. We could see over 50 degrees at the bases by Wednesday. You can see the ridge parked over the West in the GFS graphic below. 

The precip anomaly plot shows average precip for us which means very close to zero over the span of the 5 day period next week. 

There is a chance we could see a shower or 2 by next Thursday into Friday but right now the chances are not high. It does look like the ridge breaks down, pushes East and a trough should replace it for cooler weather at the very least. 

I'll keep you posted on that... 

Till the next one... Mike out. 

NEW: Snow Ratio Forecast

You can now get a good idea of the upcoming snow quality for the next storm via our new "Snow Ratio" forecast for any location in OpenSnow.

When we talk about snow quality, such as “light and fluffy” or “heavy and wet”, we are talking about the snow-to-liquid ratio. The higher the snow-to-liquid ratio, the lighter the snow quality, and vice-versa.

1. Go to any location screen and tap the "Snow Summary" tab.
2. Scroll down to the 5-day hourly or 10-day forecast section.
3. View the 5-day hourly or daily "Snow Ratio" forecast for the next 10 days.

10:1 will be fun but will feel a little heavy. 15:1 will offer some faceshots and feel pretty light. 20:1 will be incredibly light, almost like skiing through nothing but air.

This new feature is currently available with the latest version of the OpenSnow iOS app installed (App Store > OpenSnow > Update) or on the OpenSnow website (OpenSnow.com). It will be available in the OpenSnow Android app soon.

View → Snow Ratio Forecast