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The Ikon Pass

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I wish it were that easy, just for us to vote yes on a ballot before the season and it would snow.  We are still very early in the season, the storms normally pick up the last week of the month into December.  For now we have some cooler weather but dry for the next 10 days.

High pressure continues to dominate near the West Coast blocking storms, even though the forecast models continue to try to move it in the long-range.  It just keeps staying in place as we get closer.  Here is a look at the 10-day precip forecast.

10 day

The long-range model runs continue to try and move the pattern beyond 10 days.  Beyond 10 days I normally just look at potential patterns, not storms.  The GFS and European ensemble mean runs are showing the ridge shifting away from the West Coast around the 17th...


and out near the Aleutians by the 22nd...


That would definitely open up the storm door as we go into the 4th week of November.  But with the poor long-range forecasts lately, we need to watch as we get closer.  We had the MJO phases on our side this week and the forecast for a trough and storms this weekend 10 days out were a bust.

This time getting closer to Winter is on our side.  The GFS runs show a possible storm around the 17th and 22nd.  If that pattern above verifies we would see some storms beyond the 20th.  For now, we just continue to live in Fantasyland.

Stay tuned...BA

P.S.  Recovering from surgery I had yesterday for the next 2 weeks, so this delay in storms worked out.  I spent the weekend working on the truck.  I got on the snow tires and new wipers.  So I'm ready to chase storms when I'm recovered which I'm hoping coincides with the storms starting.  For now I'll be in bed binge watching election coverage and then ski videos.  I voted last week.  I'm looking forward to no more political ads!  It's time to obsess with snow and skiing!

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