Update 2 PM:

Forecast video shot from Alpine this morning.

From Monday Morning:

Conditions Report:

From what I was hearing from everyone and from my own experience the skiing was good on Sunday.  It was cold with soft snow and some fresh tracks to be had.  The storms over the past 2 weeks did a good job of filling in a base on the mountains.  Now that snow is packed down around the rocks and logs and we will be looking for the next storm.

The Forecast:

It will be cold again for Monday but not quite as cold as Sunday.  Highs should be in the 30's with light winds.  We are watching the next storm spin up off the coast and start to draw up some moisture this morning.

This low is expected to move towards the coast but then stall and move south down the coast through Thursday.  We could see some very light snow showers starting in the early morning hours Tuesday and through the day.  Not expecting more than an inch on the mountains.

Tuesday night looks to be the best chance of seeing some accumulating snow as moisture wraps up the east side of the low and moves over us from south to north.  Still, only expecting 1-2 inches of snow.

Wednesday into Thursday the low drops down the coast.  Some model runs like the European model stop the snowfall.  Other models including the GFS continue the chance for very light snow showers into Thursday.  It looks like no more than an inch of snow possible on the mountains each 12 hour period.

Here is a look at the total precipitation forecast.  The forecast models have a range of 2 tenths up to 7 tenths of an inch of liquid in total over the area.  The average is 4 tenths.

Here is the updated total snowfall forecast for the 3 days.  I had to lower a bit again today as the European model has the storm moving away sooner.  Generally 2-5 inches of snow possible in total.  I would lean towards the low end with this storm, with the best chance of more than 2 inches being for mountains south of the lake.

The Weekend:

High pressure builds in over the West Coast for the weekend.  We should have dry weather Friday to Sunday with highs in the 30's on the mountains and 40's at lake level.  

Right off the coast the next trough is ready to move in for Monday.

The Canadian and European model runs now split this storm as it moves into CA and encounters the ridge.  If this storm splits we could get little to no snow from it.  Here is a look at the Canadian total precip forecast for the next 10 days and you can see the heavier precip near the coast that doesn't make it to Tahoe due to the split.

The GFS model runs still hold the storm together and have a 2 day storm that brings in quite a bit of moisture.

So we will have to keep a close eye on the trend for this storm as it is our next chance for a decent snowfall if it holds together.

Behind the storm on the 10th, the long-range ensemble runs show high pressure trying to build off the coast.  

That could bump the jet stream a bit further north into the Pacific NW.

The long-range model runs have the storm track into the Pacific NW, but keep it very close to Northern CA.  Some runs continue the storms through mid-month while others keep the storm track just to our north.  The difference would be a wet period versus a dry period, so we will be watching closely.

Stay tuned...BA