Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 5 years ago December 14, 2018

Sunday Storm Looking Wetter...

Summary

- The next storm for Friday night is falling apart as it moves in. We will see increasing clouds and wind on Friday, with ridge gusts reaching up to 100 mph! That should close down some upper mountain lifts. We could see a few snowflakes Friday night. The best chance for a dusting of snow is NW of the lake near Donner Summit. - After a break on Saturday with some sun and breezy winds, another storm moves in by Sunday night. This storm looks like it could hold together long enough to bring us some snow into Monday morning. We could see 2-9 inches of snow on the mountains. - In the long-range, it looks like a drier pattern sets up the week of the 17th. A pattern change looks to begin around the 22nd. Storms could return between the 23rd - 26th through the end of the month.

Short Term Forecast

Live Forecast 1 PM:

From Friday Morning:

We have a heavy wind for Friday and then Snow for Sunday night.  There are a few small changes to the forecast this morning to increase winds for Friday and increase the snowfall forecast slightly for Sunday night into Monday morning.

Windy/Dry Storm:

The forecast for Today has not changed much other than to increase the ridge winds.  It's mild this morning with temperatures already into the 30's before sunrise.  Expecting highs into the 40's with increasing clouds, and winds gusting to 100 mph on the ridges.  That should close down some upper mountain lifts today.

We can see the clouds moving into CA from the weakening system.  Behind that, you can see the stronger storm for Sunday moving towards us!  We will get to that in a minute...

satellite

This evening as the front moves through the moisture is expected to dry up by the time it reaches Tahoe.  Some of the latest forecast model runs do push a little more precip in northwest of the lake near Donner Summit.  Maybe enough for a coating of snow.  I added 0-1 inches to the forecast for the mountains in that area for tonight.

total precip

The Weekend:

Saturday we are expecting to see some sun between storms with highs in the 40's. The winds will come down but we could still see some mountaintop gusts of 30-40 mph.

Sunday we will have increasing clouds and wind.  Temperatures should be a little colder in the 30's on the mountains with strong ridge winds returning making it feel a little colder.  We could see winds gusting to 60+ mph which could affect lifts again on Sunday.  It looks like any snow showers from the next storm will hold off until after 4 PM.

Sunday Night Storm:

The trend the last 24 hours for the Sunday night storm is for it to pull in a bit more moisture off the Pacific as it moves into CA on Sunday, and then to hold together better as it pushes southeast through the Sierra.  That has caused a slight increase in the total precipitation forecasts on the models.

This storm is pretty healthy as it approaches as you can see above on the satellite.  Ahead of the front on Sunday, it pulls in a decent amount of moisture into Northern CA.  

pwat

The storm does begin to split and weaken as it pushes into our area Sunday evening around or just after 4 PM.  But over the last 2 days, it has shown signs of holding together enough to bring several inches of snow to the Tahoe basin through Monday morning before moving out.

The latest model run average is up from 0.58 inches of liquid along the crest yesterday, up to 0.71 inches today.  Not a big increase but it's up a little.  The range is 0.50 to 0.90 on the models and ensemble mean runs.  The NAM model below is closest to the average. 

nam

I usually use the GFS/European model average in the snowfall forecast.  They are both showing up to 0.80 inches of liquid, so there is nothing to average.  It's a tad above the average of all the models, so I'd be cautious of the high end of the forecast, but the trend has been wetter.  The forecast is up about an inch on the east side of the lake, up to 3 inches for the west side.

forecast totals

High Pressure Builds In:

It looks like the storm moves out by Monday afternoon with a ridge quickly building in over CA by Tuesday.  That will mean a dry pattern kicking in and a warming trend.  Highs will be into the 40's through the end of the week and maybe 50's for lake level.

The European model is still showing a splitting system holding together enough to bring in some showers by Friday, but I'm still not buying that and thinking we stay dry through the end of the week.

Extended Forecast

This week the long-range discussion has been struggling with where the pattern goes week 2 and beyond.  Because of the scars from past winters having long dry spells, as soon as I even mentioned one of the possibilities was a drier pattern some of you threw in the towel on the month of December.   Even though I mentioned a wet pattern, cold pattern, or wet and cold pattern were also possibilities...

Initially, the ensemble mean runs were showing the ridge shifting from over CA north towards the Gulf of Alaska.  Then yesterday I mentioned they were hinting at a shift further west than north, especially on the ensemble control runs.  That would shift us into a colder and stormier pattern.  Today the ensemble mean runs are in better agreement on that pattern developing.  Let's look at the transition over the next 2 weeks.

Here is the ridge building over CA by Tuesday...

tuesday

Then northwest off the Pacific NW coast next weekend the 22nd - 23rd...

nw

Then shifting further west by Christmas...

north of hawaii

and finally a bit further west to the north of Hawaii for the last 5 days of December...

dateline

The European and GFS ensemble runs are very similar.  The Canadian model is not quite as far west with the ridge off the coast.  What this pattern shift would do is to start to crack open the storm door starting the weekend of the 22nd, opening it a little further by Christmas, and fully open the last 5-6 days of the month.  This would be a pattern where cold air could push down from the north, and cold storms could drop in from the Gulf of Alaska.

Still not getting overly excited about this yet.  The models were hinting at a pattern change earlier this week, and have only begun to start agreeing and showing this pattern the past 2 days.  Let's get through this weekend's storms and then we can really start to analyze the potential pattern for the rest of the month.

If you are watching the GFS operational and ECWF deterministic models at home, you will see that the European model starts to bring in storms the weekend of the 22nd while the GFS holds off until Christmas or the day after.  So they are starting to catch on to the pattern the ensemble runs are showing.  

If you have been praying for snow or asking Santa to bring colder and snowier weather, keep it up.  Let's hope we won't be waiting too long for more snow after the Sunday night storm...

Stay tuned...BA

P.S.  I have to get going here this morning.  I'm heading up to Sugar Bowl to help collect toys for the Camp Fire victims this morning.  If you can, come ski with us today.  Each toy donated (valued at $15 or more) gets you 50% off your lift ticket today.  If you are already a pass holder you can still donate and Sugar Bowl will also be donating $5 in cash for each present.  There will be ski gear raffled off at Judah Lodge at 3 PM as well!

Also, 50/50 Brewery is releasing the Sierra Nevada “Resilience Butte County Proud IPA” today at 5 PM, with 100% of the proceeds going to the Camp Fire victims!

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About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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