It is a snowy morning on the mountains with a quick refresh of the snow on the slopes from the storm that is just finishing moving through.  Reports are 1-5 inches this morning as the snow continues to fall.

I was sweating bullets yesterday watching that large plume of heavy precip sitting over Northern CA trying to push East.  I knew why I had put out a low snowfall forecast, but I was definitely afraid the forecast would be way too low if that moisture pushed closer.  It didn't...

Here is a look at the radar yesterday evening showing the heavy precip trying to push East but getting stuck at the base of the foothills as expected with the southerly flow.

I mentioned in yesterday mornings post how much I don't like storms like this because they look great on satellite and radar, but always have a hard time pushing the precip into the Tahoe basin.  If you have been reading along all week you weren't expecting big totals.  The final forecast I put out yesterday morning was for 3-8 inches on the mountains.  

Here is a look at the 6 a.m. resort totals.  These were measured before 6 a.m. and it's still snowing, so these aren't the final storm totals.  Boreal reported at 8 a.m., so that may be a little more representative of the final totals along the crest.

We are falling behind the seasonal averages now.  Based on the Central Sierra Snow Lab, we should have about 23% of the annual average by this date.  

Looking at the radar the snow is still falling, but still struggling to reach the East side of the lake.  The snow should end between 8-10 a.m. from north to south.  We could see an additional 0-1 inches on the East side, and 1-3 inches for the West side of the lake this morning.

The Forecast:

Skies begin to clear this afternoon but it stays cold with highs in the 30's.  Winds should come down as well.

High pressure builds in quickly bringing dry and mild weather Tuesday through Thursday.  We should see highs into the 40's on the upper mountains and 50's at lake level.

The ridge doesn't stay very long though as it will shift east by Friday reopening the storm door.  The GFS model runs have trended towards the European in digging a trough in a little deeper on Friday holding the storm together into Northern CA.  You will see on the ski resort pages that I have added a few inches of snow to the forecast for Friday into Friday night.  Snow levels start around 8k but fall to lake level Friday night.

As we go into the weekend the pattern is shifting with a ridge building off the coast and a trough digging down the West Coast.

That will allow a series of shortwaves to move through the Pacific NW and Northern CA Friday through Christmas Day.  The European model runs show stronger storms for Sunday and next Monday into Tuesday.  The GFS shows the storms but they are weaker.  Either way, the pattern looks active with the chances for a snowy Christmas increasing if the forecast continues to hold.

Going through the week of the 24th it looks like the ridge north/northeast of Hawaii could amplify northward, with a deep trough over the West.

That could bring below average temperatures from Christmas Eve through the end of next week all the way into Mexico.

The ridge off the coast is a little too close for big storms, but if this pattern were to set up we could see weak/moderate systems drop down into CA bringing snowfall starting Sunday the 23rd.

Looking way out into fantasy range, the European and Canadian models show high-pressure building back in over the West Coast the last few days of the month.  The GFS model runs show a trough continuing over the West Coast.  Either way, there are not any signs right now that any high-pressure ridge lasts very long.

Here is a look at the GFS ensemble mean run for total precipitation the next 2 weeks.  Not big numbers, but an active pattern.

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. I think some of you just come on the site to read this blog every day.  Be sure to check out the rest of the site and features.  My favorite is the snowfall alerts I have set up to go to my phone.  I have the threshold set to get an alert on my phone for any ski resort in Tahoe reporting an inch or more.  This is an example of my phone screen from this morning.