Tahoe Daily Snow

Nice Weather Into the Weekend...

Summary

- For Wednesday we have rain and snow showers continuing with snow levels hovering around 6500 feet. Mountain top wind gusts to 60+ mph. - It looks like we could see some sun and lighter winds for Thursday with highs in the 30's. Then clouds could be increasing again on Friday ahead of the next storm. - Over the weekend we have splitting systems moving in Friday night and Saturday night. That should send the storm to our south keeping us fairly dry. We could get brushed with some light snow Sunday night. - We could see the next storm push in around the 17th, but this storm could split as well. Then a drier pattern may finally build in over the West Coast starting the 18th into the last week of January.

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Short Term Forecast

Noon Update:

Snow showers continue to fall on the mountains.  Temperatures have creeped up a little.  Snow level look to still be hovering in the 6,500 to 7,000 foot range.  I'm at 7,200' at Sierra at Tahoe and it is still snowing.  They will likely go up during lighter showers and come down under heavier ones as the freezing levels hover around 7,500 feet.  All rain at lake level.

The forecast models have come in a little wetter for today into this evening.  They are showing the snow showers hanging on longer into this evening before diminishing.  We have seen some heavier bands of snow move through today.  That could push the snowfall totals to or just over the high end of the 5-10 inches forecast from yesterday morning for this storm.  Below is a live forecast I did this morning from Sierra.

Original Post from 7 AM:

Storm Recap:

This storm has performed as expected so far.  We saw snow push in west of the lake along the crest around 10 PM last night, with snow levels starting around 7,000 feet.  Then between 1-4 AM, we saw the precip push through to the east side of the lake as a front moved through, and snow levels dropped to around 6,500 feet.  Now this morning, we have continued rain and snow shower continue with snow levels holding steady.

the boot

So far the ski resorts this morning have reported 2-6 inches on the west side of the lake, and 2-5 inches on the east side.  That is pretty much what we were expecting by this morning.  Rain/slush at the lower base levels below 6500', with an inch upwards to the reporting elevations. 

reports

We have strong winds this morning with gusts of 80-90 mph on the mountain tops.  That is likely going to cause some lift delays on the upper mountains so watch the lift reports.  The winds will come down some today, but we are expecting gusts to 50+ mph most of the day.

The Forecast:

The rain and snow showers will continue today, with the heaviest precip west of the lake up along the Sierra crest.  We could see similar amounts of snowfall on the mountains as we saw overnight.  Not expected accumulations at lake level.  The showers should wind down by this evening.  The winds are expected to be strong today with ridge top gusts to 70+ mph which could affect upper mountain lift operations.

Thursday through Saturday looks dry with some sun and high into the 30's on the mountains and 40's at lake level.  Winds look fairly light as well over the 3 days.  It should be beautiful weather to get out and ski.

High pressure is going to be building over the Rockies and the jet stream is going to be splitting off the West Coast this weekend into early next week.  That is going to split the next few storms, sending the southern system south into southern CA.  

jet stream

The GFS model is now stalling the 2nd system off the CA coast on Sunday.  Whether it stalls near the coast or moves through Southern CA, it will try to draw some moisture up towards Tahoe by Sunday night.  But very light amounts of precip are forecast.  Sunday night through next week is beyond the 5-day window so if you want snowfall details you will have to look at the 10-day snowfall forecasts on our individual ski resort pages that I enter in the morning.

I'm just going to quickly run through the 3 systems Sunday night through Thursday off the latest GFS model run that could possibly bring us some snow.  Here is the first system Sunday night stalled off the coast and pushing some moisture up from the south into the area.  We could see some light snowfall accumulations.

storm1

That low is forecast to move inland Monday night bringing the chance for another round of light snowfall accumulations.

monday night

The models now show a 2nd weak system possibly pushing into CA Tuesday into Tuesday night bringing the chance for more light snowfall.

tuesday night

Then it looks like high pressure over the Rockies could weaken some by midweek allowing the next trough to push into CA without splitting.

trough

That could bring us a stronger and wetter storm for next Wednesday into Thursday.

wednesday

There is a final system that pushes into the West Coast next Friday.  That one looks like it will track further north and may or may not push far enough south into Northern CA to bring us a final round of snowfall.

So we could be headed into an unsettled period Sunday night through most of next week.  Very light snowfall accumulations expected Sunday night through Tuesday night, then the possibility of more significant snowfall Wednesday into Thursday.  The snow levels on the latest model runs stay below lake level through the period.

Extended Forecast

We have been expecting at least a short dry period to start sometime during the 3rd week of January.  The long-range of the ensemble runs has pushed that off until the 18th or 19th.  Then we could see high pressure build in over the West Coast, with a trough-ridge-trough pattern from the Eastern Pacific to the Eastern U.S.

trough ridge trough

We will have to see how long that pattern lasts into the end of the month.  

Stay tuned...BA

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