Update 9 PM:

Live forecast update from Truckee...

Update 7 PM:

The storm has performed pretty much as expected so far.  We saw high snow levels today with increasing winds.  We even saw some thunder and lightning as the first part of the storm moved in this morning.  That closed the ski lifts for a while at the ski resorts, along with high winds closing upper lifts today as expected.

Temperatures fell through the day and continue to fall this evening.  Snow levels came down slowly today dropping to lake level between 4-6 PM as expected.  Snow levels as of 7 PM were approaching 5,000 feet. 

We continue to see high winds with gusts to 126 mph in the last couple hours.

The center of the low is moving inland tonight.  There is plenty of moisture and convection moving into Northern CA this evening.

Bands of heavy precipitation continue to form over the Sierra and will continue through the night before tapering off by morning.  

Now that temperatures have dropped into the 20's the snow will become drier and more powdery, and will pile up more easily.  The forecast models trended slightly wetter right as the storm was moving in this morning.  I like the forecast below but may lean towards the high end with the wetter model runs.  We will have to watch and see where the heaviest snow bands set up overnight.

Original Post from 7 AM:

There are no changes to the forecast this morning.  Expecting high elevation snow today (Sunday) with high winds.  Then snow levels crashing behind the cold front with snow for all elevations tonight.

This storm is pulling in plenty of moisture as it pushes into Northern CA this morning.  It looks like there is plenty of moisture behind the cold front for snow showers to continue tonight.

The front edge of the heavier precipitation associated with the cold front is near Chico as of 6:30 AM and pushing southeast towards the area.  We are seeing precipitation starting to push in ahead of the front this morning.  

We will see rain and snow through the day with the precip becoming heavy with the front moving through this afternoon.  Tonight plenty of moisture for snow showers to continue through the night and tapering off Monday morning.

Snow Levels:

Snow levels at 6 a.m. looked to be around 7,500 feet as the showers start to move in.  As the precip becomes heavier this morning we should see snow levels push down closer to 7,000 feet.  They could stay there into the afternoon, maybe pushing down to 6,500 feet during the afternoon with the heavier precipitation moving in.  The latest model runs show snow levels dropping to lake level between 4-6 PM, but we will have to watch today to see if that happens faster or more slowly.

This means that we will see rain most of the day at lake level and at the base of the ski resorts with low base elevations below 7,000 feet.  Above that a heavy wet snow.  Then tonight snow ratios increase with a lower density/more powdery snow falling.

Winds:

Mountaintop winds are already gusting 70-80 mph this morning.  They are expected to increase through the day as the cold front approaches.  We could see gusts to 100+ mph over the ridges this afternoon.  That should close down most upper mountain lifts today.

With the high snow levels and high winds, you will be forced to ski lower terrain in the rain and wet snow.  Not a good day for skiing.

Precipitation:

There is little change on the forecast models this morning for total precipitation amounts.  They are still showing on average 2+ inches of total precip near the crest with good spillover to the east side of the lake.

Above 7,000 feet where mostly all snow falls is an easier snowfall forecast.  Below that is tricky.  We have colder air moving in that will drop snow levels, as well as heavy precip rates that can drag them down this afternoon and evening.  All we can do is watch today to see what happens.  I will be updating through the day on the "Tahoe Weather" Twitter and I plan to get out and do some live reports this evening on Facebook, Instagram, and Youtube.

Snow levels drop to 4,000 feet or just below tonight, so definitely all snow behind the cold front this evening.  The snow will become lower density (fluffier/more powdery) tonight as temperatures drop into the 20's.  The forecast models show about half of the total precipitation amounts falling after 4 PM today, so up to half of the forecast snowfall could be lower density snow.

Here is the updated snowfall forecast.  

I like the look of the system on satellite this morning for producing good snow showers tonight behind the cold front as moisture continues to push in along with the cold unstable air.  The center of the low pressure moves through just to our north overnight.  Snow showers should end by morning. 

We will have to watch the bands of snow setting up tonight to see if a heavier band targets certain mountains to attempt the over on snowfall.  The wettest model run this morning shows up to 31 inches near the crest.

The Week Ahead:

High pressure is going to build in near the West Coast this week, blocking storms and bringing us a prolonged dry pattern.

Temperatures start out cold for Martin Luther King Day (Monday), with highs only in the 20's.  Winds could be gusting 40-50 mph on the mountain tops.  That should be low enough to open all the lifts after the mountains dig out and do avalanche mitigation, but it will be a cold and breezy day.

Tuesday we start to warm through the week.  Highs into the 30's Tuesday, and then low 40's at lake level Wednesday through Friday.  Temperatures could warm into the 40's at all elevations into next week with plenty of sun.  Winds could still be gusty Tuesday but should become lighter through the rest of the week.

There are still signs we could see a pattern change starting around the 1st through the 1st week of February.  The forecast models are all over the place with exactly what the pattern change is.  But most of the model runs show the high-pressure ridge shifting away from the West Coast, and some sort of troughing near or over the West Coast.

We will be focusing on the potential pattern change this week after this storm, to try and get a handle on the pattern going into February and when the storms might return to CA.

Stay tuned...BA

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