Conditions Update:

It's a cold and beautiful morning here in the Tahoe basin.  We are seeing some sun this morning as the next storm approaches the coast.  The snow showers yesterday dropped a coating up to 4 inches of powdery snow on the mountains, bringing the 4-day totals to 13-32 inches on the upper mountains.  The skiing conditions are great.

The forecast was for a dusting up to 2 inches of snow yesterday, with the highest amounts expected along the crest.  In my afternoon update yesterday I talked about how some steadier snow had been falling through the day NW of the lake near Sugar Bowl.  That is where the highest amounts fell with up to 4 inches being reported.  This 4-day storm started warm but ended on a cold note with powdery snow yesterday.

Weekend Forecast:

No rest for the weary as the next storm is quickly approaching the CA coast this morning.

On satellite, it looks like it will move east right across the state today, but it will stall out off the coast this morning and then move south down the coast through Sunday. 

We will see clouds increase through the day with a chance for scattered snow showers increasing this afternoon.  Highs remain in the 20's on the mountains today and 30's at lake level.  Ridgetop winds are gusting to 60+ mph this morning.  That may affect some upper mountain lifts on wind prone mountains.  The forecast models show gusts to 45+ mph through the day.  Only expecting a dusting to an inch of snow through 4 PM.

Going into tonight the chance for snow showers increases with another 1-2 inches of snow possible on the mountains by morning. 

Sunday is the trickiest day to forecast.  As the low moves to our south, a deformation band of precipitation will likely form on the north side somewhere from Tahoe south.  That could bring some heavier snow showers depending on where it sets up.  We should see continued snow showers with 1-3 inches of additional snowfall possible.  The winds should also come down on Sunday with only light winds expected.

The latest forecast models don't agree on where or if heavier bands of snow set up Saturday night into Sunday.  Here is a look at the Canadian model keeping most of the precipitation to our west and along the coast, with the heaviest amounts on the west slope up to the crest west of the lake.

The NAM model shows a heavy band of snow setting up north of the lake along I-80 with much higher precip amounts through Sunday.

The model average is 4 tenths of an inch near the crest, with the best chance for higher totals along the crest and Southwest of the lake. Snow ratios will be around 15:1 on the mountains, so any snow will be dry and powdery.  Here is the updated snowfall forecast through Sunday.

The NAM model would have up to 14 inches NW of the lake, while the European model has a high end of only 3 inches.  So we will have to watch the track of this storm closely over the weekend to see if we only get the low end of the forecast, or if heavier snow develops over the area Sunday bringing more snow than expected.  I'll put out updates on here if there are significant changes and on the TahoeWeather Twitter page.

Monday-Tuesday:

The cold weather with well below average temperatures for the weekend continue into next week.  Highs in the 20's and 30's for the weekend and remaining in the 30's through Thursday. 

For Monday high-pressure builds in briefly.  It should be a beautiful day with sun and lighter winds.

Then on Tuesday, a quick moving cold but weak system sweeps through.

The latest trend on the models is back towards what they were showing a few days ago, with the system not digging as far south, and just brushing us with light snow Tuesday afternoon/evening as the front sweeps through.  The latest precipitation forecasts show only 1-2 tenths of an inch at best.  I have lowered the forecast on the ski resort pages to 1-2 inches for this system.

Finally a Dry Pattern:

High pressure builds in over CA starting Wednesday.  There is still a cold trough over the Western U.S. with a cold northerly flow for us, so we stay cool with highs in the 30's even though we finally see the sun through the end of the week!  Time to recoup some vitamin D we have not been getting the last 2 months.

As we go into next weekend, we should start to see a warming trend with highs into the 40's.  We could even approach 50 at lake level later in the weekend.

Fantasy Range:

There are still some signs that the high-pressure ridge over CA could start to weaken starting around the 19th as a strengthening Pacific jet stream tries to push storms into the West Coast.  The GFS and Canadian models continue to deflect storms through the 3rd week of March, but the European model continues to show the ridge breaking down with storms returning around the 19th.

Some of the GFS and Canadian ensemble runs do show storms as early as the 19th as well, but the majority hold off until the last week of March.  We will continue to watch the trend in the long range to see if the ridge does weaken and allow storms to push into CA later in the month.

Stay tuned...BA

P.S.  A quick note.  When you are on the individual ski resort pages looking at the snowfall forecast, you can now hover over the snow level when it says "below the base" and the snow level will pop up.

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