Storm Recap:

As we were expecting, we saw sun and clouds with scattered snow showers Sunday with only a dusting to an inch on the mountains on the west side of the lake, and heavier showers from upslope snow on the east side of the lake.  I had up to 4 inches forecast for the east side mountains, but some did even better with reports of 3-9 inches this morning!

Here are the final numbers from the storm that is clearing out today.

It's another cold and beautiful morning in the Tahoe basin with clouds & sun, and temperatures in the 20's.  We have some gusty winds above 8,500', with the ridgetop sensors showing some gusts to 50 mph from the east.  Being that today is 3-11 I thought it was a good morning to play one of my favorites.

With all the storms and difficult travel, I haven't been to the south side of the lake as much as I have wanted to be.  I'll be heading down to Sierra today and then working my way south through the week down to Dodge Ridge.  I'll do a trip report at the end of the week for the "news" page.

Monday Forecast:

The skies should continue to clear today with the sun coming out.  Highs today should warm into the 30's on the mountains, and close to 40 at lake level.  It should be a beautiful day.

Weak Tuesday Storm:

For Tuesday we have trough digging down from the north over land with not much moisture.  A fast-moving cold front will sweep through Tuesday afternoon with scattered snow showers possible into the evening before the storm clears out.  We could see winds gust to 45+ mph on the mountain tops. 

Snow levels could be around 7,000 feet as the storm moves in, but they quickly fall below lake level and drop down below 3,000 feet Tuesday night.  Most of the forecast model runs show half of a tenth up to a tenth of an inch total precip with this system.  Very meager, barely enough for a dusting to an inch of snow on the mountains.

High Pressure Finally Builds In:

It has seemed like an endless storm since the beginning of February with only a 1-day break at best between storms.  We will finally see high-pressure build in for several days bringing dry weather and warming temps for the weekend.

We stay cold Wednesday with highs in the 20's on the mountains and 30's at lake level.  We could still have some gusty east winds on the mountain tops through the day.  Then we warm into the 30's on the mountains to near 40 at lake level Thursday into Friday.  For the weekend we are expecting sunny skies, lighter winds, and highs into the 40's on the mountains.  We could even break 50 at lake level by Sunday!

I think most of us were looking forward to at least a several day break in the storms before they return.  Some of you are ready for them to end completely and for Spring to start.  Unfortunately for you, it's continuing to look like that won't happen.  We may only have a 6-day break in the storms.

We have been talking all week about the ridge over the West Coast weakening later in the month,...

...and the jet stream strengthening and possibly pushing storms into CA the last week of March. 

Over the past 24 hours, the forecast models have come into remarkable agreement for more than a week out.  The latest model runs show the first storm possibly pushing into CA by next Tuesday.  It is weakened by the high pressure over the West but also helps to weaken the high-pressure, possibly opening the door to stronger storms through the last week of March.

We could see a series of storms from around the 19th-27th if the latest forecast model runs hold true.  Here is a look at the 2-week total precipitation forecast on the latest GFS model run.

If you are not a subscriber yet, the free sneak peek from Ikon will allow you to see the snowfall in the 10-day forecast on the ski resort pages.  Trying to get an idea of what could be in store later in the month will be the focus over the next week, while we are enjoying the reprieve and soaking up our much-needed vitamin D!

P.S.:

Thank you for all of the kind words many of you have sent me on the SF Chronicle article & podcast interview.  I don't like to post things like that as I am just doing the same thing I have done for 13 years, sitting here in my slippers and blogging my outlook for my friends.  Always shocked and humbled that so many of you want to read along, and I never expect any of the articles. 

I just wanted to say thank you to Julie Brown who wrote the article.  Most interviews I've done over the years have been over the phone.  Julie actually came to the office at 4 a.m. and watched me go through my entire morning routine.  I thought that was such a cool thing to do.  I'm surprised she didn't fall asleep from boredom watching me plug in all the data.  

Stay tuned & get out to enjoy the sun this week!...BA

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