We aren't expecting much of a change in the weather pattern this upcoming week. We have had high-pressure with temperatures and fairly dry weather over the area the past 2 weeks. That is expected to continue.
The sun angle is getting lower and the days shorter, so it's not as hot as it could be under this pattern earlier in the summer. We are expecting high temperatures in the Tahoe basin to continue to be around 80 degrees, and overnight lows in the 50's at the lake. In the lower valleys 40's at night.
The temperatures have bee above average in August...
That is after a cooler first half of the summer so the temperatures as a whole for the summer are now close to average for a lot of the West.
We did see a few quick-hitting thunderstorms around the lake with some hail on Tuesday. Things have dried out and we are expecting mainly dry weather through next Wednesday. We may start to see some moisture drawn up from the south later next week that could bring back a chance for thunderstorms.
Expecting typical afternoon breezes on the lake with gusts of 15-25 mph. Overall the OpenSummit app for the next 5 days is showing all green risk icons, meaning no weather concerns at the lake.
We have seen a few small fires pop up over the past week around the area, including two small fires in the Tahoe basin. But they were all put out fairly quickly. The Northern CA fire incident map is still very quiet this week. The only real event is the fire that broke out north of Susanville yesterday, but it seems like they have a handle on that one as well.
When the activity is this low there are plenty of available resources to send to any fires that break out. The warm and dry weather will continue so still plenty of fire season left. Let's hope the activity stays low!
Upcoming Snow Season:
As we head into September we head into a month when we could see the first snowfall of the season! It is more typical to see a coating of snow on the higher peaks around the lake as the first storms of the season move through. But over the last 50 years, we average measurable snowfall at the Central Sierra Snow Lab near Donner Summit about once every 4 years.
The last time was two years ago. So the odds are against us in seeing measurable snowfall this September at lower elevations, but it is time to start tracking storms as we get closer to winter!
Still a little early to start looking at any seasonal forecasts. The Farmer's Almanac and Old Farmer's Almanac have released their forecasts. But we will wait until October to line up all of the forecasts that will be coming out.
Right now, you can see the cold water off of South America in the ENSO regions which may continue with La Nina conditions for this winter. But look at all of the very warm water in the North Pacific.
If a tongue of cold develops from Japan to north of Hawaii where some of the cooler water is right now, and a horseshoe of warm water continues around it, we may see a classic warm PDO pattern combined with the La Nina. We can start to look at the Sea Surface Temps more closely as we go into the Fall, and look at some analogs to past winters.
Most forecasters are focused on hurricane Dorian right now and not the upcoming winter...
We are continuing to get in as much swimming and hiking as possible as the summer weather continues. I hope you are too! More swimming than hiking lately with the warm temperatures. This week we took a dip in Boca Reservoir!
We are looking forward to cooler weather and good hiking this fall, and hopefully another good snow season!
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