Tahoe Daily Snow

Dry Pattern Locked In for At Least Another Week or Longer...

Summary

- Sunny with highs in the 60s at most elevations through the weekend. Overnight lows in the 30s. Light winds expected. - Next week we are expecting the dry pattern to continue. Highs in the 60s at lake level. Temperatures may cool a few degrees into the 50s for the upper elevations. - We are still watching the pattern beyond mid-month for a possible change. Some long-range models continue to hint at storms possibly pushing into CA during the 3rd week of November.

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Short Term Forecast

There is plenty of cold air over the eastern half of the country this week. Meanwhile, the ridge is stuck over the West Coast with quiet weather for the West and warm temperatures.

ridge

Not much has changed since the last post through mid-month. We are expecting a dry and mild pattern with temperatures above average throughout the period.

We are seeing some slight inversions at night with warmer temperatures for upper elevations. But overnight lows, in general, aren't that cold. Only in the 30s and likely near to above freezing at night for most mountain elevations. Not good for snowmaking but it is possible if temperatures get near freezing with the dry air.

Extended Forecast

Not much has changed for the long-range forecast either, except for a couple GFS forecast model runs the last 2 days. I still like the MJO forecast and the jet stream forecast for the last 10 days of the month as discussed in more detail in the last post. 

Most of the European and Candian ensemble mean runs keep high pressure near the West Coast through the 3rd week of November, but weaker the 3rd week of November. The 0z GFS ensemble mean run is one of the first to show a trough over CA by the 20th.

trough

The Canadian and GFS ensemble runs show some weak storms starting to push into CA the 3rd week of November 15th-21st. Total precip amounts are light but at least not dry. This is similar to what they have been showing for several days now.

gfs ens mean

There have been a couple of GFS model runs over the last 2 days including the 0z run that shows stronger storms by the 20th.

gfs2

The GFS model may be catching onto something the other models aren't seeing yet, or maybe onto things that look more favorable for the pattern later in the month we have been watching, or maybe it's just seeing a fantasy. We need to see more models and model runs catch on and of course, this is all 10+ days out so not a time to get excited.

Meanwhile, we are finishing up our trip to Haleakala National Park this week keeping our minds off of the dry pattern... We caught a good day with few clouds and warm temperatures.

jayce

I'll be back in the office this weekend and ready to obsessively track down the first storms. Hopefully coming later this month. 

Stay tuned...BA

Announcements

Mt. Rose will be open this weekend. Mammoth is also planning to open for the season. Boreal is planning to open a hike up snow park this weekend. More ski resorts planning to open next week if we can get some colder air and more snowmaking.

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