Not much change to the forecast this morning. We are watching an area of low pressure dropping through CA today (Tuesday). That will close off to our south through Wednesday with an area of rain/snow showers forming on the north side over the central Sierra. Colder air behind the storm with a drier pattern through the weekend. Then some colder air for next week with the chance for weak systems later in the week.

The Tue Night - Wed System:

The latest forecast model runs this morning are still showing light and scattered showers for most of the Tahoe basin through Wednesday morning. Snow levels dropping to around lake level tonight. Here is a look at the GFS, NAM, and Canadian model runs for total precipitation through Wednesday showing light amounts of around a tenth of an inch of precip or less for most of the basin.

It is only the Canadian model above that shows some heavier precipitation totals southeast of the lake near Heavenly. With the flow from the east the best shot for orographic enhancement of the precipitation is on the east side of the lake from Mt. Rose down to Heavenly. That is why Mt. Rose could see up to 1-3 inches of snow and Heavenly up to 3-5 inches if the band of heavier precipitation sets up far enough north.

Overall, only expecting a dusting up to an inch of snow above 7,000 feet for most of the mountains around the Tahoe Basin, with the accumulating snow to the South of the Tahoe basin down to Mammoth.

Winds this morning were gusting over 50 mph from the southwest on the mountains. They are coming down some and then will flip northeast and gust up to 50 mph again Wednesday as the low winds up to our south. The better news than the minimal snowfall is the much colder air moving in with overnight lows in the 20s for most mountain elevations that will make for much better snowmaking conditions the rest of the week.

Thursday - Sunday:

High pressure builds back in over northern California Thursday through the weekend.

We will see the sun and lighter winds with slightly warming temperatures. Highs into the 40s on the mountains with highs near 50 degrees at lake level. Overnight lows still in the 20s for most elevations allowing for continued snowmaking at night.

Cold Front Monday:

We are expecting another cold trough to dig into the West to start next week.

Right now it looks like a dry front for the Sierra as it drops down to our East. The GFS model shows a quick shot of snow showers with the front but most models are dry. The good news is a reinforcing shot of cold air to continue highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s with good snowmaking conditions at night.

The long-range forecast models continue to show a pattern change for next week. Suggesting we flip from a positive PNA pattern to a negative PNA pattern.

That would suggest that the ridge near the coast blocking storms would shift away from the West Coast with a trough over the West. That would open the door to storms dropping in from the northwest later next week.

The forecast models are showing weak/moderate systems dropping into northern CA around Thanksgiving and again the weekend of the 30th. It's too early to try and look at any details. Most model runs keep the precipitation amounts light-moderate like the GFS ensemble mean run suggests.

Some others show the chance for some wetter systems like the Canadian ensemble mean runs suggest.

The European ensemble mean runs are somewhere between the two. We will continue to watch this over the next week. These should at least be cold systems so they could at least bring a few inches of snow each, but possibly more.

The long-range models suggest this pattern could last into the first week of December.

So things are looking up with the colder air week 1 and the chance for some systems that could bring snow week 2.

Stay tuned...BA