Last week I had the title "will it ever snow again?" but I was being facetious. It will snow again this season. How much is the question...

It's not the question this week as the dry pattern continues. It's another beautiful morning here in the Tahoe Basin. Here is the view this morning from Heavenly.

We have high pressure over the West Coast through the end of the week with mostly sunny skies expected. Highs in the 40s for the upper elevations and 50s at lake level through Tuesday, and then warming into the 50s and to near 60 at lake level the 2nd half of the week. 

Next Weekend:

We are still watching a weak trough that wants to try to dig into the West next weekend. That could at least mean slightly cooler temperatures for Saturday but still mild, and increasing winds. We could also see increasing clouds depending on the track and timing of a potential storm system dropping south towards CA.

The Canadian and European Control models are splitting the system for next Sunday with the Canadian still showing a cut-off low developing off the coast and sitting there into the following week. The European and GFS models drop the system into northern CA next Sunday with at least some light precipitation. The GFS model, as usual, is the most aggressive a week out.

We will be watching this potential system all week to see if we could actually see a little snow, or if it will be another week of watching a Sunday system trend drier as we get closer.

Going into the week of the 2nd the long-range models haven't changed much. They are still showing the ridge near the West Coast with a dry start to the week.

Fantasy Range:

The 2nd half of the 1st week of March the long-range models continue to show the ridge retrograding NW with lower heights over the West.

That would bring a better chance for storms to be able to drop south into West Coast. We have been watching the long-range models show a pattern change during the 1st week of March for weeks now. The shift is right about 11 days out so almost out of the fantasy range. We started tracking the possible shift at 4 weeks out. This week hopefully the models continue the trend of retrogression of the ridge as the first week of March moves within the 10-day window.

The long-range ensemble mean models continue to show precipitation chances increasing through the end of the 1st week of March. Here is a look at the Canadian ensemble mean model for total precip through next Sunday with the weak system possible...

...and here is a look at the same model through the end of the 1st week of March.

The long-range deterministic and control models are just starting to pick up on some storms near the end of the 2-week forecasts. You are likely seeing that on some of the GFS model runs. Through the end of the 1st week of March, the pattern sets up for mostly weak storm chances if we do see more active weather.

Then going into the 2nd week of March the long-range ensemble runs continue to show the ridge retrograding farther NW.

That would open up the storm door a little wider to wetter storms. But the jet stream is weakening going through March so we will have to see what could develop if this pattern sets up. Either way, the long-range models are for weeks and currently continue to show a pattern change for March that could bring more active weather than February. We continue to wait and watch with fingers crossed it holds...

The latest CFSv2 shows the above-average precipitation chances for the 2nd week of March into the 3rd week.

Just messing with us and keeping false hope alive? Or a real change coming for March? If we stay dry through the end of February the data, from the Central Sierra Snow Lab near Donner Summit, shows that we will be 5th lowest for YTD snowfall and precipitation for the last 50 years of data. We will need just under 16" of total precipitation by the end of May to break out of the bottom 10. I'll have all the stats after the month ends.

Stay tuned...BA