Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 3 years ago December 20, 2020

3 Storms Over 7 Days...

Summary

We have mostly sunny skies for Sunday into Monday with highs in the 40s. A fast-moving system could bring a few snow showers Tuesday along with ushering in some colder air. Wed-Thu looks dry. Then a storm may move in Christmas night into Saturday, with another storm possible next Sunday into Monday.

Short Term Forecast

We have pretty significant inversions Sunday morning. Temperatures at the base of Squaw Valley this morning are 20 degrees while up top it is 40 degrees! Part of that is thanks to the clear skies and calm winds we have for Sunday. Highs warming into the 40s down to lake level.

We have 3 storms that we are tracking over the next 7 days, and the forecast models disagree on the track for all of them. We will take a look at all 3 this morning, and the possible scenarios for each.

Tuesday System:

We will have sunny and mild weather again Monday, but the winds pick up through the afternoon ahead of the next system. A quick-moving front moves through Tuesday morning. The GFS model still keeps any precipitation chances well to our north.

GFS 1

But the European and Canadian models continue to show the precipitation dip farther south into the Tahoe Basin.

GEM

The WPC's blended model shows meager amounts of total precipitation possible. Enough for maybe a dusting of snow on the mountains Tuesday morning.

wpc 1

Winds will still be gusty blowing from the west to 40+ mph over the ridges. Highs dropping into the 30s.

Mostly sunny with colder air and a light east wind for Wednesday into Thursday. Highs in the 30s, and only 20s for the higher elevations.

Christmas Day (night) Storm:

A deeper trough digs into the eastern Pacific by Christmas day and pushes into the West Coast by Christmas night.

trough

That will open the door to a storm moving into the West Coast by Friday night. Again, the forecast models are at odds with how this system pans out. The European model continues to show a weakening system bringing light snow to the northern Sierra into Saturday. The GFS & Canadian models are a little more interesting as they show a wetter system tracking farther south.

gfs christmas

They also show a weak AR (atmospheric river) making it into central CA.

ar

There is a question on whether this happens, and where it would be pointed. Some model runs are pointed at Tahoe and the northern Sierra, and others pointed to the south at Mammoth and the central Sierra. The difference between the European model showing no AR and a farther north track is this for total precipitation through Saturday...

euro 2

...versus this on the GFS and the Canadian model.

GEM 2

That's a big difference and it could be dictated by how many people ask Santa to bring us snow for Christmas. We will be tracking this system all week.

3rd Storm Next Sunday - Monday:

This is out on the far edge of the 1-week window, but I thought I'd throw it into the short-range section this morning. Behind the departing storm on Saturday, the door is still open for another storm to move in behind it next Sunday into Monday. 

next sunday storm

Some models show this system pushing into the Sierra and others show it spiraling down the CA coast. That could make big difference in precipitation and snowfall amounts. So we will be tracking this system all week as well.

Extended Forecast

By the end of the month and into the 1st week of January we may see a ridge build in near the West Coast.

ridge

The question seems to be if it will be over the West Coast keeping CA dry, or just off the coast allowing cold/dry systems to drop down from the north. Overall, expecting a drier pattern going into the 1st week of January with only weak systems if we see any storm move into CA. 

We are still watching the long-range pattern for changes the 2nd week of January and later into the month that could allow stronger storms into CA. The good news is that we could see a decent amount of snow next weekend if the storms track the way we want. So pray for snow.

Stay tuned...BA

P.S.

I get a lot of questions about weather information that is already on our site. I think some readers only come to this page. I highly encourage you to click around the site to see all of the information we provide, a lot of which is new like the map overlays and static trail maps! Also, I write 4 forecast blogs including the Mammoth Daily Snow, Squaw/Alpine Daily Snow, and the I-80 Daily Snow. The last specifically tries to forecast the timing of storms and potential travel issues like where and when you could see chain controls.

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About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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