Last Storm Recap:

The snow showers Saturday morning dropped some decent amounts of snow over some of the mountains pushing them over the forecast. We have 24-hour reports this morning of 2-8 inches of new snow on the mountains. That brings the 2-day storm totals to 4-15 inches and the 3-day totals to 15-28 inches. See, I told you these small storms could add up to feet over the 5-day period.

That 5-day period is through Monday as we have more snow moving in Sunday afternoon which we will get into in a minute. The season totals this morning have bumped us back up to 77% of average for the date, not too shabby. Looking at the "keep me honest forecaster scorecard", The snow showers Saturday morning pushed the majority of the ski areas over the final forecast for the storm from Friday morning.

No one complains when we get more snow than forecast. That's 2 storms in a row where all of the variances to forecast were from getting more snow than forecast. Let's hope for 3 in a row...

Sunday - Monday Storm:

We have increasing clouds Sunday morning. A little faster than previously expected with the early morning peeks of the sun disappearing. Here is a look at the satellite image this morning showing the clouds from the next system streaming up and over the high-pressure ridge off the coast and into Northern CA. 

We will continue to see increasing cloud cover into the afternoon along with some increase in the winds. Ridgetop winds gusting from the southwest up to 40+ mph this afternoon. The latest model runs show light snow showers moving in a bit earlier than they were showing the last few days. We could see scattered shower push in during the afternoon as shown on our forecast radar.

The latest model runs keep the showers fairly light through the evening, with steadier showers moving in after midnight. They show the best chance for steady rain/snow Monday morning. 

Then showers could linger over the mountains through Monday afternoon, with some models showing scattered showers lasting into Monday evening before clearing overnight Monday night. Ridgetop winds will increase to 80+ mph Sunday night into Monday morning and could stay gusting to 60+ mph through Monday afternoon, which could keep some exposed upper mountain lifts on delayed opening or closed.

Snow levels start low Sunday afternoon with the cold air in place ahead of the storm around 5500-6000 ft. The warmer air moving in aloft will help with some overrunning precipitation this afternoon and evening ahead of the precipitation ahead of the front. Snow levels may hover in the 5500-6000 ft. range until the steadier precip moves in after midnight and snow levels rise to around 6500-7000 ft. by Monday morning.

For Monday, we have snow levels staying in that range, possibly a tad higher under lighter precipitation. Add that with the gusty winds and Monday looks like a wet and windy day below 7000 ft. Above 7000 ft. we will have snow through the morning with scattered snow showers into the evening. Snow levels behind the front at the end later Monday afternoon into Monday evening drop back below lake level.

The total precipitation amounts on the latest model runs are similar to the past few days. They have a range of 0.4 - 0.8 inches along the crest with up to 0.3 inches on the east side of teh lake. That is very light for a 24-hour storm. The average this morning is around 0.6 inches on the high end west of the lake along the crest.

You can see that amounts fade off pretty quickly south of Dodge Ridge down to Mammoth. Snow ratios will be low running only10-12:1 Sunday night and 9-11:1 on the mountains Monday. A thicker snow. That also means less fluff of the snowfall from the light precip amounts. Here is the final forecast for the storm. For Dodge Ridge, I'd lean to the lower end of the forecast behind farther south.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

For Tuesday into Wednesday high pressure off the coast nudges into CA. It will be close enough for mostly sunny skies both days. But it will not nudge far enough inland to warm temperatures and avoid gusty winds from the strong jet stream just to our northeast.

Highs only in the 30s both days. Ridgetop winds gusting from the northeast 40-50+ mph Tuesday and turning more northerly/northeasterly Wednesday and increasing to 50-60+ mph. So it will be a bit breezy and cold on the mountains despite the sun coming out.

Thursday - Friday System:

The next storm is approaching by Thursday morning. We may see increasing clouds through the day on Thursday, with a few showers possible by later in the day. Winds may not increase a lot until Thursday night into Friday. Snow could push in by Thursday evening and last into Friday, with the latest model runs clearing the system by Friday night.

This system is right on the edge of the 5-day window so we will have a lot of details to iron out as we get closer this week. The Canadian model still shows the moisture feed from all the way back to the north of Hawaii holding together as the system pushes the front into the northern Sierra.

The GFS & European models have the feed cutting off and weakening as the system pushes south into northern CA. So we will keep an eye on that. The Canadian model has double the amount of total precip as the other models. The rest of the models are in good agreement showing up to 0.4 - 0.6 inches of precip along the crest.  The average this morning is 0.7 inches thanks to the wet Canadian model. Overall a weak system on most models.

Here is the WPC's blended model showing the total precipitation forecast from today through Friday.

Again, amounts drop off to the south of Dodge Ridge down to Mammoth. Snow levels look to drop at the onset down to around 5500-6000 ft. Thursday evening, so this may be all snow to lake level to start, but then they could rise Friday morning at the end back up to around 6500-7000 ft. Lots of fine-tuning to do this week, but here is the initial snowfall guestimate based on an average of the latest forecast model runs.

The latest long-range model runs suggest that high pressure near the West Coast could nudge into CA by Saturday. That may keep the systems next weekend to our north.

High pressure may continue to strengthen off the coast into the week of the 22nd, keeping the start of the week dry and becoming mild. We could see highs warm into the 40s at lake level next weekend and 50s by Monday the 22nd.

Fantasy Range:

The long-range models continue to suggest that the ridge shifts northwest well away from the West coast the last few days of the month into the first few days of March, with a deep trough digging down over the West Coast.

That may bring back an active pattern to northern CA, and it could open up the storm door enough for bigger systems. We will continue to watch that closely over the next 10 days...

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. We added even more map overlays this weekend! We now have 24-hour snowfall estimate and season total snowfall estimate maps!

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