So obviously since the last post on Wednesday, the weekend system trended a bit to the north and we didn't pick up any of the meager precip some models suggested. We did see some rain and snow to our north across far northern CA.

Even more for the Pacific NW and parts of the Rockies. I was driving back through MT & ID on Sunday and saw some snowy peaks. Here in CA, we did see some fresh snow up on Mt. Shasta. Here is a photo I saw posted by Stephen Meier on Instagram.

That gets me excited for winter! Unfortunately, we will continue a dry pattern for at least another week. Behind a dry cold front, Wednesday high pressure will build in over CA through the weekend.

Winds & Smoke:

The winds will pick up Wednesday with the front. Ridgetop winds could be gusting to 45+ mph over the ridges from the southwest.

Some lighter winds today (Tuesday) have been allowing some smoke to move up from the fires to our south. The rain in northern CA over the weekend did help to knock down some of those fires and they were able to get more containment, but we have active fires to our south especially near Sequoia National Park and even the Caldor fire is still burning a little, and still sending us some smoke. 

The gusty winds Wednesday could clear us out again, but then the northeast winds behind the front on Thursday and lighter winds into the weekend could allow more smoke to drift into the Tahoe basin. But not expecting the thick smoke we saw earlier in the month.

The Dry Pattern Continues:

The dry pattern should continue at least through next Tuesday. Highs into the 70s at lake level through the period. Outside of the smoke, we should see mostly sunny skies during the day throughout the period. Here is the 7-day precip forecast on the WPC's blended model.

By the middle of next week, the forecast models are in good agreement that a large trough could be set up over the northeast Pacific. 

That could bring slightly cooler temperatures for later next week, as well as gusty winds returning. It could open up the storm track back into the Pacific NW in the long range. Right now most model runs keep the storms to our north. But the ensemble mean runs show the possibility that a couple of systems could dip far enough south for light precip chances over the next 2 weeks.

Fantasy Range:

The new European Weeklies show average precip chances over the next 30 days. 

I think the storm track will mostly stay to our north for now. Maybe we can get a system or two to bring us a dusting of snow to the peaks as we go into October. Nothing to get excited about yet, but I'll be watching and will let you know when something shows up!

Stay tuned...BA