The long-range weather pattern is continuing to trend in a much more positive direction from the dry and mild pattern we are still in. No BIG storms on the horizon yet, but the pattern looks like it will start to become more active and cooler starting next week.

Thursday - Sunday:

Not much change in the weather we've been seeing through Sunday. We are finishing out the very dry and mild pattern. Sunny days with highs into the 50s, and 40s for the higher elevations. Light winds through Saturday with ridgetop gusts starting to increase slightly by Sunday. Overnight inversions continue with poor snowmaking conditions at night.

Monday System:

We finally have some precipitation forecast in the 5-day window. Monday will continue to be mild ahead of the front moving down from the north with highs still in the 50s. But increasing clouds west winds during the afternoon, with ridgetop gusts up to 80+ mph.

We are on the western edge of this system moving down from the north, and snow levels are expected to be above 9000 ft. to start. We could see showers move in later in the afternoon through the evening and then clearing by Tuesday morning. 

The latest GFS forecast model run is a bit farther west and wetter, and also slower with the front moving through. Right now the blend of models is still showing a tenth or two of total precipitation.

Because of that along with high snow levels, I am not going to make any snowfall forecasts yet. Snow level may drop below 7500' at the end, but mainly expecting rain showers for most areas and maybe a coating of snow for the highest peaks. We will continue to watch the trends over the next few days.

The good news is that this is just the start of a pattern change. The other good news is some colder air behind the front Monday night through Tuesday night. We may see better snowmaking conditions with colder temperatures. Tuesday should be mostly sunny but with highs only in the 40s at lake level and 30s for the upper mountains. 

By Wednesday high pressure is continuing to build back in over CA. That will warm us back into the 50s at lake level, and we could see inversions return by Wednesday night.

Thursday - Friday Storm:

Things get a little more interesting by next Thursday into Friday. We have another cold trough digging south but this time farther West over CA.

This will allow the next system to track farther west over the ocean picking up a bit more moisture before moving inland. We will still have to watch the trends for the track of this storm. The European model below is on a drier track but still with light-moderate snow.

The GFS model is trending wetter. Here is a look at the GFS ensemble mean model trends for Sugar Bowl ski resort. Each run is darker green and the latest run in black, which jumped to almost twice as wet overnight.

This is a cold storm and snow levels should drop to well below lake level. That makes it even more interesting with the latest trends. Let's hope the positive trends continue over the next 7 days. We will be watching this system closely. Hoping for a nice helping of snow and cold air behind the storm for good snowmaking.

If you are planning to come up for projected opening dates for the weekend of the 10th-12th, this storm could help, but we are starting with very little if any snow on the trails ahead of this storm, and the natural snow may not be enough to open any trails. So it could still be iffy. But first, we need to get a storm, so let's just focus on that...

Fantasy Range:

Behind the storm, it should be colder through the end of the 2nd week of December. Right now the weekend of the 11th - 12th looks dry. But the Western trough is forecast to back farther west with time through mid-month.

A ridge centered near the Aleutians and a trough along the West Coast is usually our perfect setup for cold West Coast storms. We could see additional storms the week of the 13th into the 3rd week of December. The long-range models now have the EPO (eastern Pacific oscillation) staying positive which could help along with the negative PNA pattern in keeping the active pattern going.

Hopefully, things stay active for a while starting next week. The ski resorts need to play catch up so natural snow and colder temperatures will help. Daily posts going forward as we track these storms. Still no big storms on the horizon yet, but hopefully we get a big one before the holidays. We'll take any cold and snow we can get, no complaints...

Stay tuned...BA

On Tuesday's episode of The Flakes, Mike & BA go through the 5-day snowfall reports & 5-day forecasts for each ski region and talk about when the pattern could shift for the West.

Listen wherever you get your podcasts. Apple, Google, Amazon, Spotify, etc...