Still no good news to report if you are looking for new snow. We are having a top 5 low snowfall January so far after a record-breaking December. The pattern does shift this week but from one dry pattern to another. It shifts again the last few days of the month into February, will it be enough for storms to return?

The Week Ahead:

The two weather features of note through Sunday will be some high clouds Monday & gusty winds Friday. There is a weak system over southern CA for Monday continuing to stream in some high clouds.

But overall we should see some sun and highs into the 40s with lighter winds. The rest of the week through Sunday we should see mostly sunny skies with highs into the 40s at lake level and 30s above 9000 ft. as high pressure sits over the West Coast blocking storms.

A cold front moves down from the north through the West but mainly to our east Friday. That may cool us a few degrees with 30s above 8000 ft. But the main impact may just be strong northeast winds for Friday gusting up to 80+ mph over the ridges. That could close some upper mountain lifts. Then we could see nicer weather again for another weekend.

The total precipitation forecasts through Sunday show some light showers possible for the Rockies as the pattern opens up a little to weaker systems, but staying dry over northern CA & NV.

Next week we go into the last week of January. The first half of the week the pattern is expected to be pretty much the same. Some models hint at another cold front moving down from the north to our east next Tuesday, so maybe a few degrees colder with gusty winds again. But overall expecting the dry pattern to continue.

It's next Thursday through the last few days of the month that the long-range models have been showing another pattern shift for a while now. There is still good agreement this morning that the ridge could shift away from the West Coast up towards the Aleutians.

That is the GFS ensemble mean model above. The European ensemble mean model has lower heights with a trough over the West by the last day of the month.

This shift could allow some weak systems to move down from the north farther west through CA the last few days of the month along with some colder air. We have seen some model runs over the past week suggest that storms could undercut the ridge into the West Coast, but the latest model runs aren't showing it.

The deterministic models look pretty boring with very weak or no storms through the end of the month on the latest runs this morning. But the ensemble mean models, that are averaging dozens of ensemble member runs, are still showing that we could see some light precipitation the last few days of the month.

We will see... We seem to be shifting from one dry pattern to another with each shift in the pattern. The ensemble mean models are trying to set up a pattern that could open the door to a decent storm, but we need to see one show up on the deterministic model runs and get it out of fantasy range into the 10-day window to have anything to talk about.

Fantasy Range:

There is model agreement that we are going to shift from a positive PNA to a negative PNA pattern, which is a western trough pattern, starting around the 27th into February.

The long-range models continue to show ridging in the northeast Pacific and troughing over the West into the 1st week of February in line with the PNA pattern forecasts.

That could eventually lead to some storms pushing into northern CA. The pattern looks better for storms from around the 28th of January until the 5th-6th of February. The GFS ensemble mean extended model is still showing near to above-average precipitation for the first week of February.

Hopefully, we pick up a few storms during this period as the long-range models continue to suggest the open storm door is short-lived, with the ridge shifting closer to the West Coast again by the 2nd week of February.

Leading to another drier period with below-average precipitation.

Winter seems to want to be in the East more than not through at least mid-February. Hopefully, we see something change but that's the outlook right now. The MJO is of no help right now as the active phase is sitting in the circle of death...

It's not uncommon to see extended mid-winter dry periods. January is a very variable month for snowfall. Here is a look at the last 50+ seasons showing big and dry Januaries.

Right now we are seeing the 4th lowest snowfall since January 1971. We will have to see if we can pick up more the last few days of the month. Until then enjoy the continued sunshine...

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. I received several messages asking about whether or not the volcano that erupted will affect our weather pattern. From anything I've studied volcanic eruptions only affect long-range weather & climate patterns if they are strong enough. The SO2 emitted with this volcano looks to be low compared to some other big eruptions.

The stronger volcanic eruptions that emit more ash & SO2 into the atmosphere have been found to warm to the stratosphere & cool the troposphere bringing some short-term global cooling and some research suggests a positive Arctic Oscillation pattern tied to eruptions. But overall not much effect on short-term weather. Here is a good article.

Volcanoes and Climate Change | Earthdata (nasa.gov)

I know everyone is desperate to find anything that could shift our weather pattern back to stormy but it won't be the volcano. I'll continue to watch for signs in the long range that we could see the pattern shift back to stormy in any significant way. 

A New Episode of The Flakes Podcast is Out!

This week, BA, Mike, & Evan talk about the pattern changes starting over the West, the Volcano, the Nor'Easters, the 5-Day Powder Reports & Forecasts, & where to chase powder this week!

Available on most podcast platforms...