Summary:

Nice weather today for the Thanksgiving Holiday.  The weather changes this weekend as a storm moves in that will bring rain and snow.  We could see several inches of snow on the mountains.  Next week the forecast is tricky but we could see precip return sometime Tuesday-Wednesday.

Details:

Happy Thanksgiving from the Allegrettos!  Hope you are all eating lots of food, spending time with family, and giving thanks.

As for the forecast I just took some advil after looking through the models this morning.  Even less agreement on the storm this weekend and next week.

The GFS and NAM forecast models bring in light amounts of precip with snow levels hovering around 7000 ft. all weekend.  They bring in enough precip for up to 6 inches of snow on the mountains. 

Here is the GFS precip forecast for the weekend.

The Canadian and European models are stronger with the front moving down from the North and the precip pushing in off the Pacific over the weekend.  They also drop snow levels to lake level on Sunday.  The bring in enough liguid for a couple of feet on the mountains, or more along the crest.

Here is the Canadian precip forecast

Small difference.... For now I am going with the updated GFS which is in the middle.  That would bring us 3-6 inches on the mountains above 7000 ft. Saturday and again Sunday.  West of the basin along the crest we could see 6-9 inches each day.  That's a total of 6-12 inches on the mountains and 12-18 inches along the crest.  If the snow levels drop to lake level on Sunday we could see 1-4 inches.

I am not liking the big spread in the models this close to an event.  We will need to take a look again tomorrow and hope for more agreement.  The low end of 3-6 inches in total is possible as well as the higher end of 2 feet.  Normally I take the average of the models like I am with this event and it tends work out close to what we get.

Another headache is what happens with the low off the coast next week.  The GFS builds the ridge out around 150w and pushes the low into CA Tuesday-Wednesday as it weakens.  It pushes most of the energy to our South with enough precip for several more inches on the mountains above 7000 ft.  

The European model now drops another low down from the Gulf of Alaska with the low off the coast bring drawn NE into the Pacific NW ahead of it.  It then drops the second low pressure off the coast by the end of the week.  This draws moisture into the area Wednesday through Saturday before the low pushes heavy precip in the weekend of the 6th.  This is a new scenario but the Canadian is similar in delaying precip until Wednesday.

Here is the Canadian precip forecast through the end of the week.

 

Still impressive.  All of the changes by day is why we don't make snowfall forecasts more than 5 days out.  Even this weekend is a toss-up currently.  Confidence is high that we will see mountain snow this weekend and next week.  Confidence is low in the amounts.

Long-Range:

The GFS builds in the ridge along the West Coast by the end of next week and keeps us dry until around the 12th.  The European model runs like I mentioned above drop a storm into the West Coast the weekend of the 6th.  

We will keep watching by the day.

Stay tuned....BA