It's Saturday morning and I can feel the anticipation around the Tahoe basin as we await the first good snowstorm since January 15th. It's the calm before the storm early this morning with some sun and clouds as the sun is rising, and the winds are just starting to increase over the ridges. 

Clouds and winds will increase through the day on Saturday as the storm is approaching, so you'll want to get out early to take some turns.

Highs in the 30s on the mountains and low 40s at lake level. Ridgetop winds from the southwest are gusting up to 30-40+ mph already this morning and will increase to 60-70+ mph by the end of the day. That will likely close some upper mountain lifts for exposed mountain areas before the end of the ski day.

Saturday Evening Storm Arrival:

We have what I think is a classic Tahoe snowstorm moving in by Saturday evening. the latest forecast model runs have sped up the arrival some to 4-7 PM, and I wouldn't be shocked if someone sees a flake slightly earlier. Snow levels will be around 7000-7500 ft. by 4 PM, but are forecast to fall quickly to near lake level by 7 PM as the snow spreads across the Tahoe basin.

I hope that my snow level forecast is right because snow levels could hover near 6000 ft. through 10 PM and then fall with the cold front as it moves through during the early morning hours, and then will be near 4000-4500 ft. by early Sunday morning. So hopefully we don't have several hours of rain in the lower areas near and below lake level. It will be close but I'm optimistic we have mainly snow through the evening.

Looking at our forecast radar map, you can see the snow arrive by evening and then a band of heavy snow moving through during the early morning hours with the front, and then bands of moderate-heavy snow showers fill in quickly behind the front into Sunday.

By 5 AM Sunday as the ski areas are starting to measure the overnight totals, we could have reports of around 6-18 inches from east to west across the basin as the snow continues to fall. 

Sunday Powder Day Forecast:

We will still have strong winds Sunday morning still gusting up to 60-70+ mph from the west early, and then dropping through the day. That could cause a few wind delays for ski lift openings, but they should go away. You may have a slow go digging out and getting to the mountains anyway, and they'll have to dig out as well.

It will be colder Sunday with highs only in the 20s to near 30 down at lake level. A secondary wave dives in behind the front helping with lift and keeping the air cold and unstable as snow showers continue to fire up over the mountains. They should become lighter during the afternoon and more scattered later in the day. Most models the snow showers shutting off by 7 PM.

Every single forecast model has trended wetter with this storm over the past 24 hours, on the order of 2-5 tenths of an inch wetter, with the total model average up almost 4 tenths, with up to 2.1 inches on the high-end west of the lake up along the Sierra crest. Here is a look at the WPC's blended model forecast for total precipitation through Sunday evening.

The GFS model is the wettest showing up to 2.6 inches of total liquid, with the highest amounts southwest of the basin near Sierra at Tahoe and Kirkwood, with fairly equal amounts down the crest into the Central Sierra. The Canadian is the driest with up to 1.6 inches along the crest. Good spillover to the east side of the lake with up to 1.9 inches on the high end.

Snow ratios could average around 9-15:1 Sunday night from lake level up to 9000 ft. Then hovering around 10-15:1 Sunday as snow levels pause and hover around 4100-4600 ft. through the day. Then colder air moves in at the very end dropping snow levels below 4000 ft. with snow ratios jumping for a final coating of powdery snow on top. The icing on the cake.

I call this a classic Tahoe storm because we could see 1-2+ feet of snow n the mountains in 24 hours, most of that coming from a cold frontal passage, and the storm isn't super cold. All in all the kind of storm we see quite often. I have bumped my snowfall forecast up a few inches for the final forecast due to the models trending wetter.

Most of that falling by Sunday morning with several more inches falling during the day on Sunday before ending Sunday evening. Now it's time to sit back and watch what happens, and to tally up the totals reported Monday morning.

Monday:

We clear out on Monday but it stays fairly cold. Mostly sunny skies with highs in the 30s. Brisk northeast winds gusting up to 30+ mph over the ridges will make it feel even colder. Watch for slightly higher gusts possible for northeast wind-prone mountains like Kirkwood.

Drier & Milder:

High pressure continues to build over CA through the rest of the week with the dry pattern looking to continue through at least next Saturday the 11th.

The few outlying model runs that suggested some light showers reaching the northern Sierra Wednesday have all now trended the system to our north. We could see a few clouds, but overall we should see mostly sunny skies through the period along with lighter winds. Highs into the 30s on the upper mountains and 40s for lake level.

The long-range models continue to show a splitting trough off the West Coast next weekend as the ridge over CA begins to shift east, and another one starts to build in the northeast Pacific. That could create a cut-off low to spin down the West Coast and to be off the coast of CA by next Sunday the 12th.

All of the operational models are now showing the low dropping down far enough off of the coast to keep us dry through Saturday and possibly through Sunday. Eventually, that system will move inland but the question will be, does it move in to our south and miss us, or could we see some precipitation sometime later Sunday into Monday the 13th? We'll continue to keep an eye on that.

Fantasy Range:

Beyond 10 days, we get to the 14th (mid-month) and into the 3rd week of February. The long-range models continue to show the ridge building in the northeast Pacific with a trough digging in over the West and CA through the period.

That could open up the pattern to storms diving down into the West Coast during the 3rd week of February. The long-range models are starting to suggest that we could see "average" precipitation during this period instead of below average this upcoming week.

The 6z GFS model run shows a fairly wet pattern developing, so we'll continue to watch the trends.

The uber-long-range models continue to suggest that we could see above-average precipitation for the last week of February. It will be interesting to see if the pattern starts dry the 2nd week of February and then progressively becomes wetter through the end of the month. Fingers crossed...

Snowfall Reports:

I put the snowfall reports at the end because we saw barely any snow as expected from the weakening system that moved through Friday. We expected only up to 1 inch of snow on the high-end for the mountains NW of the lake along the crest, and that is exactly what we saw, a few mountains NW of the lake reporting up to 1 inch of snow fell on Friday.

I also included the snowfall totals by month so far this season, so that you can see our starting point going into February. Let's hope we continue to add to the already impressive totals all month.

January Precipitation:

I promised you that I would continue to leak out classified information on the January and season-to-date stats this week. I already disclosed the snowfall numbers a few days ago, so let's look at the precipitation stats.

A reminder that I get this data from the Central Sierra Snow Lab site that they have on there in raw form, and I make pretty graphs for you with the data, which only goes back to 1970 right now. The Snow Lab is actually in the northern Sierra near Donner Summit at 6894' in elevation, despite some silly person labeling it the "Central" Sierra Snow Lab.

In total for January, the Snow Lab scientists recorded 21.6 inches of total precipitation, which made January 2023 tied with 1996 for the 3rd wettest January on record since at least 1970.

Looking at the season-to-date totals from Oct-Jan, we are tied with 2006 for the 6th wettest Oct-Jan period on record since at least 1970.

If you remember back to my snowfall data, January was the 2nd snowiest month on record and Oct-Jan was a record for the snowiest on record since at least 1970. So how is the snowfall doing so much better than the total precipitation? Snowfall as a % of the 52-year average is actually running 40% higher than total precipitation, 192% vs 152% of the average for the date as of 1/31.

The way that happens is that we see colder storms on average than we've seen historically. More snow than rain and higher snow:liquid ratios than average with the storms so far this season. I've been keeping track of the difference between snowfall vs precipitation as a percentage of their averages since 1970, and the graph looks like this.

The trendline has been going slightly down over time as we've seen warmer storms on average over the last 52 years. During La Nina & El Nino seasons, it's common to have colder & warmer storms respectively, especially during stronger events like the La Nina seasons of 07/08 and 10/11, and the El Nino seasons of 97/98 and 2015/16. That's where you see some of the big spikes and dips.

It doesn't always line up exactly with La Nina/El Nino, but it tends to in stronger events. This La Nina started moderate and has been weakening. But as of the end of January, this is currently the coldest storm season on record since at least 1970, with more snow than rain and higher snow ratios on average.

That's all I have for now. Time to watch the storm roll in. Have fun out there the next 2 days!

Stay tuned...BA