Storm Totals:

Sunday morning I was a little disappointed by the storm so far as totals were near to below what we expected. The colder portion of the storm Sunday we thought could deliver the over for some mountains to catch up, and it did! A band of snow took aim NW of the lake Sunday afternoon and boosted their snowfall to 2-6 inches over the 2-10 inch forecast for the mountains Sunday!

The rest of the Tahoe basin and south did pretty well and picked up the forecast amounts for Sunday. The 24-hour reports are 4-16 inches, and the 2-day storm totals are 14-30 inches!

At lake level, I have reports of anywhere from 6-18 inches from readers and friends around the basin, which was the lake level forecast range.

Looking at the Keep Me Honest Forecast Report Card, you can see that the mountains to the south of the lake ended up 5-7 inches under the final forecast I put out Saturday morning before the storm. That was because of the warmer temps and less snowfall than forecast Saturday night, and not getting the over Sunday to compensate for it.

North and east of the lake the mountains came in on forecast thanks to getting a boost Sunday, and two mountains NW of the lake even came in 2-5 inches over the forecast!

Of note is that I used the Alpine Base report of 13" for Palisades for the 24-hour report this morning as it lined up with all the other mountains NW of the lake.

Looking at their mid-mountain snow sensor they had 12" on it at 4:45 AM Sunday before they cleared it at 5 AM, and they reported 10", and then they had 10" on it at 4 PM Sunday before they cleared it and another 2" overnight, but they only reported 8" this morning, the same as the village, which is not right.

Adding up the 3 readings from the snow sensor for each of the last three 12-hour periods, their storm total was really closer to 24", in line with the 21-30" reported by all of the mountains around them. They reported a storm total of 18" which is similar to the mountains on the east side of the lake. I'm not sure why they report less with several inches more reported at the base of Alpine, I'm trying to find out.

Monday:

Clearing with bluebird skies and cold Monday morning with temperatures in the teens as the mountains finish digging out from the storm. Here is a shot of Bear Valley this morning.

It will be cold Monday with highs in the 20s for the upper elevations and 30s for lake level. Brisk northeast winds gusting up to 30-40+ mph over the exposed ridges. That will make it feel even colder.

Tuesday - Thursday:

Mostly sunny skies with a few clouds possible through Thursday as high pressure builds in over CA.

Highs warming into the 30s for the upper elevation and 40s for the lower mountains and lake level. Lighter winds are expected.

Friday- Saturday System:

There has been a big shift on all of the models with the storm track for the storm moving towards the West Coast for the weekend. The last few days most models had the storm tracking south off the coast and missing us. Yesterday I talked about how the GFS model was starting to shift it closer to the coast with some snow for Saturday.

Today, the models now all show the storm moving inland to our north Friday night into Saturday and brushing us with some light snow. We could start the day with partly sunny skies Friday and highs in the 30s. We could see increasing clouds and winds through the day as the storm approaches the coast, with ridgetop gusts from the southwest up to 50-60+ mph by afternoon.

Then later Friday into Friday night we could see some snow showers move in that could last into Saturday. The models only show very light precip amounts through Saturday right now.

It will stay cold into Saturday with some gusty winds still hanging around most likely. With the big shift in the track on the models over the past 24 hours, I'd like to watch them for another day before attempting any snowfall forecasts. If they still show light precipitation Tuesday morning, I may have to put out a forecast for a few inches of snow by Saturday afternoon.

We may see a break in the storms Sunday into next Monday the 13th, but staying somewhat cold behind the Saturday system. 

Then by the 14th through the 3rd week of February, the long-range models continue to show the ridge building in the northeast Pacific and a trough digging in over the West. But they are trending towards the ridge being closer to the West Coast and the trough being centered to our east, with CA in between.

The models show the light precip Saturday and then possibly a bit more with the next system dropping in from the north on the 14th.

The storms could continue to dive in from the north-northwest through the 3rd week of February, a drier track than we were hoping for with the ridge now forecast to be a bit closer to the coast. The long-range models now keep us near to below average for precipitation during the 3rd week of February.

Fantasy Range:

Looking out to the last week of February. The European ensemble mean model suggests we could stay in a similar pattern. The GFS ensemble mean model tries to dig the trough farther west.

We would need that to happen to have a chance at some bigger storms. If not the cold/weak systems could continue. We'll continue to watch the trends.

Stay tuned...BA