Some years I try to come up with some witty April fools posts. I was up way too late listening to music at the WinterWonderGrass Festival at Palisades last night for my brain to come up with anything this morning. But it is amazing that it's already April and exciting that we survived the winter of 2022/23 which is finally waning into spring.

The storm track for the weekend is mainly to the north of the northern/central Sierra, but we will get brushed on the southern edge Saturday night into Monday. Looking at the satellite images Saturday morning we can see some clouds moving into northern CA.

A mix of clouds and sun is expected through most of the day on Saturday along with gusty winds. Ridgetop winds are gusting from the southwest up to 60+ mph early Saturday, and are expected to increase to 60-70+ mph from the west by the afternoon, which could affect some exposed upper mountain lift operations. Highs into the 30s and near 40 degrees at lake level.

Saturday Night - Monday Systems:

A weak system drifts south into the northern Sierra Saturday night with a few scattered snow showers possible. We could see a few snow showers pop up northwest of the lake near the crest before dark. Snow levels overnight could start near lake level and fall to 5000-5500 ft. by early Sunday morning. Only expecting a dusting to an inch of snow at best on the mountains by morning.

Sunday we could see a few scattered snow showers but mainly confined to the west of the lake near the crest. Partly sunny east across the lake. The winds are still gusting up to 60-70+ mph from the west through the day. That could affect some exposed upper mountain lifts again. Highs in the 30s. Snow levels could hover near to just above lake level for any passing showers.

Here is a look at the forecast radar showing scattered showers moving through Saturday night into Sunday.

We could see another dusting to an inch of snow on Sunday for a few peaks along the crest. Then we expect some steadier snow showers Sunday night into Monday morning as the next system with slightly more moisture skims the Tahoe basin and fizzles into the central Sierra.

Scattered snow showers should diminish through the day on Monday and clear out by Monday night. It will feel noticeably colder behind Sunday night's cold front. Highs are only in the 20s for Monday. Breezy winds gusting up 30-40+ mph over the ridges, but much lighter than over the weekend.

In total, through Monday night the latest model runs show a range of 0.35 - 0.7 inches of liquid near the Sierra crest. The highest totals are focused NW of the lake near Donner Summit and then fade to the south and east. Up to 0.4 inches to the northeast side of the lake and fading to the south. The total model average has trended down and is now around 0.53 inches west of the lake near the crest.

Snow levels drop Sunday night into Monday with the steadier snow showers, down below 3000 ft. by early Monday morning. Then staying below 4000 ft. into Monday evening as teh storm clears. That will bring some drier and powdery snow to the mountains and will help to fluff the snowfall from the meager precipitation amounts.

Snow ratios will be lower through Sunday with any showers, with only wet snow for the lower elevations. Sunday night into Monday snow ratios could average around 12-18:1 from lake level up to 9000 ft. Here is my updated and final snowfall forecast for the two-day period from Saturday night through Monday.

Most of the snow is expected to fall Sunday night, with a dusting up to 2 inches Saturday night-Sunday and again Monday for the upper mountains. Lots of color coding with the system fading as it moves south. I have Mt. Rose in the 9k range in blue, Bear Valley & Dodge Ridge in the "Central" 6k range in red, and Sierra & Kirkwood in the 6k range in green.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

Tuesday a final weak system could move through with a few clouds and scattered snow showers possibly popping up over the mountains during the afternoon-evening. It stays chilly with highs in the 30s.

By Thursday into next weekend, high pressure is still forecast to build over the West Coast with a drier and milder pattern building in.

The ridge could stay over the West through the 12th-13th of April. Mostly sunny skies are expected most if not every day. Highs warming into the 40s Thursday-Friday, the 50s for Easter weekend, and possibly into the 60s by Monday the 10th! We haven't had an extended forecast for above-average temperatures like this since back in October.

A drier pattern with below-average precipitation is expected through the 13th.

Fantasy Range:

The long-range models also continue to show a possible shift in the pattern by mid-month, possibly starting around the 13-14th, with the ridge being replaced by lower heights and a trough near the West Coast.

This a perfect example of going from a negative PNA pattern this weekend with the trough over the West Coast, to a positive PNA pattern later in the week through the 13th with a ridge over the West Coast, and then back into a negative PNA pattern by mid-month with a trough back near the West Coast.

That would bring back some cooler temperatures and would open the door to an unsettled pattern returning. It will be mid-April and going later into spring. So it will be hard to get another significant storm or snow. We could see the chance for weak systems to return.

Significant snowfall or at least several inches isn't out of the question in April, so we'll watch out for those just in case they try to sneak in.

Stay tuned...BA