Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 18 days ago April 1, 2024

A Brief Taste of Spring...

Summary

Mostly sunny and milder Monday through Wednesday. Colder with rain and snow showers Wednesday night becoming snow showers Thursday and Friday. Snow showers are possible over the weekend. Then a drier spring weather pattern is expected for next week. Weak systems could return around mid-month.

Short Term Forecast

We are starting off April with nicer weather after snow over the last 5 days. There are a few ski areas that are reporting a little snow over the past 24 hours from the spotty snow showers Sunday, giving them a start to the April snowfall totals.

reports

Monday - Wednesday Weather:

High pressure over CA will bring mostly sunny skies through Wednesday morning. We have ridgetop winds from the east gusting up to 30-40+ mph on Monday. They will drop Tuesday but then increase again Wednesday ahead of the next storm along with clouds increasing by afternoon. Southwest gusts up to 60-70+ mph by evening. Highs in the 40s Monday & 50s for the lower elevations Tue-Wed.

Wednesday Night - Friday Storm:

We could see rain showers reach the crest by late afternoon on Wednesday. Then the steadiest precipitation is expected with the cold front moving through Wednesday night. Then showers and scattered showers for Thursday through Friday night as the low-pressure center behind the front drifts south through CA.

storm

The gusty winds will continue into Thursday but drop through the afternoon. Then lighter winds for Friday. Highs drop into the 30s for both days. With the showers Thursday - Friday we could see the sun peek out, especially on Friday.

The latest model runs show at least half of the total precipitation amounts for the 2.5-day storm falling by Thursday morning. The models show 0.4 - 1.1 inches of total precipitation falling near the crest by early Saturday morning, and up to 0.9 inches to the east side of the basin, with the highest totals south of the lake.

total precip

We will have to watch the trends with precipitation forecasts with the cold front Thursday night, and then how much moisture will wrap around the low over the northern Sierra Thu-Fri. That is where the range in forecasts differs.

Snow levels start very high Wednesday afternoon, up around 9000 ft, but the latest model runs drop them faster and lower Wednesday night. Down to around 6500-7000 ft. by 11 PM and 4500-5000 ft. by 5 AM. So we expect rain to turn to snow for all elevations overnight. Then snow levels could stay below 5000 ft. Thursday & Friday, and dipping below 3000 ft. at night!

With half or more of the precipitation forecast to fall Wednesday night, the snowfall forecasts are tricky as the snow levels are falling 4000 ft. as the steadiest precipitation is falling. Thursday and Friday only 0-3 inches may fall each day depending on where the snow showers move through. Here is my updated snowfall forecast for the 2.5-day storm.

snowfall

That is not much snow spread over 2.5 days, especially if half or more falls by Thursday morning. It will be a storm to refresh the slopes after the milder weather, but it doesn't look like any deep powder mornings.

The Weekend:

The cold and unsettled pattern remains over the region for the weekend. Highs are still in the 30s. A weak system moving through may bring scattered snow showers both Satuday and Sunday as well as partly sunny skies between the showers.

Extended Forecast

The long-range forecast models continue to show high pressure (orange) building in next week bringing back a drier and milder pattern.

ridge

We should see a lot of sunny skies throughout the week. Highs warming into the 40s by Monday and then 50s for the lower elevations by Tuesday.

Fantasy Range:

The long-range models continue to show the ridge shifting around mid-month, possibly opening the door to weak systems going into the 3rd week of April.

trough

We'll continue to watch the trends to see if we could refresh the slopes a few more times with a little snow before the end of the month when most ski areas plan to close. 

Stay tuned...BA

About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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