Summary:

Dry and mild conditions will continue into early next week as high pressure sits over the region.  By the middle of next week we may see some cooler weather as light precip tries to push into the West Coast ahead of low pressure in the Northeast Pacific.  By the end of next week the ridge rebuilds along the West Coast as a second low pressure deepens North of Hawaii.  That may bring us more mild and dry weather into the week of the 16th.

Details:

My fears are becoming reality as the trend continues to be that the low in the Northeast Pacific next week stays to our North.  The models are still trying to push in some light precip by Wednesday as high pressure starts to slide East.  But the low stays in the Northeast Pacific and a 2nd low drops into the Pacific North of Hawaii and deepens, helping to pump the ridge over the West Coast by the end of the week.

Here is a look at the position of the upper low by next Thursday on the GFS, and lots of H's along the West Coast.

Earlier in the week the models toyed with the idea that a trough would dig into the Eastern Pacific by the end of next week pushing the low into the West Coast.  As discussed yesterday that trough is not going to dig down the coast, and now the low is going to move Northeast towards the Canadian coast by the end of next week.  A second low is going to deepen to the North of Hawaii helping to build the ridge over the West Coast.  This is nothing new to us this season.  The trough wants to be over the cold SST's (sea surface temps) North of Hawaii, and the ridge over the warm SST's along the West Coast.  

Long-Range:

The models continue to toy with us in the long-range but at this point the long-range discussion is like the comic strip section of the paper.  The ensemble runs show the ridge shifting North week 2 and the jet stream trying to extend under the ridge into the West Coast the week of the 16th.  

Stay tuned....BA