Tahoe Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Tahoe Daily Snow

By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 8 years ago January 6, 2016

2 Down, 2 To Go...

Summary:

Another round of snow will move into the area today with snow showers lingering into tonight.  This storm is a little colder but also a little drier than the last storm.  We could see 3-6 inches at lake level and 6-12 inches on the mountains by Thursday morning, with the highest amounts on the West side of the lake.  A weak wave of precip could brush us on Thursday with some light snow showers.  Then on Friday we should have a  break before the next weak storm moves in Saturday and could bring us several more inches.  Temperatures will be in the low 30's at lake level and 20's on the mountains.

Next week we could see a couple more weak storms Tuesday and again Wed/Thu.  That pattern could continue with another storm possible the following weekend.

Details:

The storm yesterday performed close to what we expected with a few interesting differences.  We saw more snow in some parts of Reno than expected with up to 4-5 inches SW near Mt. Rose hwy.  Meanwhile, it did not want to snow South and East of the lake most of the day with South Lake only picking up a coating at the end.  The North end of the lake picked up the low end of the lake level forecast with around 3-6 inches from East to West.  There were 2 distinct waves of precip, one in the morning and one later in the afternoon.  In between with the break we did see the temps spike briefly at lake level with a brief change to rain and then back to snow.

temp spike 

Heavenly came in with only 3 inches with the snow struggling to push into the Southeast corner of the basin.  The other resorts on the Northeast side came in at or just above the forecast range.  On the West side of the basin most of the ski resorts came in close to the forecast.

Here are the totals from yesterday and the 2 day totals for both storms.

resort reports

and here is the keep me honest variance from forecast range report I have been putting out.

variance

A quick rant.  I got a lot of comments yesterday about being pessimistic.  I went back and read my forecast yesterday and it seemed like a normal forecast post.  I explained a couple of times my criteria for how I describe a storm.  Up to a foot is a weak storm, 1-2 feet is moderate, and 2+ feet is strong.  These storms have all been in the weak category and will continue to be.  That's not being pessimistic, that is just forecasting the strength of the storms.  I bet the folks in South Lake would say my forecast for them yesterday was optimistic.  

My goal is to be realistic, and more importantly accurate.  I don't make any money or gain any readers by making a forecast for non-existent big storms.  The forecast for the next 2 weeks with the ridge building in is just a forecast.  I tell you what data the models are putting out and then I tell you my opinion of what will happen.  Like with the storms this week I said I would lean towards the lower end of the model forecasts.  That was right for yesterday.  

As for the actual data, that is not opinion.  The Central Sierra Snow Lab run by Berkeley on Donner Summit is the official snow measuring station for the area.  If they reported 123 inches at 6900' at the end of December that is just the factual data.  The ski resorts measure more than 1000 feet higher.  Also some resorts start measuring when they open and others with the first flake.  They also can change measuring methods over the years, so they aren't the official snowfall data.  

The California Data Exchange Center is where the Northern Sierra precip data comes from that shows us at 89% of average precip after yesterday's storm.  The snowpack comes from the same govt sources and it still has the Central Sierra at 107% of average, but the Northern Sierra and state average dropped this week to 97% of average.  This is not pessimism this is realism.  

The good news is that we are running near average for snowfall and precip, and doing much better than the last few years.  The forecast for the next 2 weeks has much needed rain for the whole state.  The ski resorts have over 40% of the seasons snowfall up top.  I agree this is all great.  But we are in a big drought and the expectation you would get looking at the news or reading some weather sites is that we should be well above average.  That isn't happening yet.  If you are seeing those sites and then coming here for the 2 week forecast it may seem pessimistic.  But over the years I am usually accused of optimism.  I'm a snow lover and I can't wait until we do get big storms.

Ok back to the forecast.  The GFS this morning finally came more in line with the drier European model forecasts for the storm today.  So the snowfall forecast will reflect that with a lower snowfall forecast for the storm today into this evening.  The precip will have a hard time spilling over into the Tahoe basin so we should see much lighter snowfall amounts East of the crest.  The Canadian and NAM are showing half of the precip the GFS and Euro are showing, so I would still stick to the lower end of the forecast to be safe.

wed snow

Here is a look at the total precip forecast this morning on the GFS.

gfs total precip

The wave of precip with the center of the low moving through Thursday is trending South and West again.  So we may only see clouds and a few snow flurries.  Not expecting much accumulation except maybe an inch or two along the crest, best chance Southwest of the basin near Kirkwood.

We should have a break Friday.  Then on Saturday the next weak system moves in with more snow.  The good news this morning is that the GFS is now trending further North in line with the European model which would increase our snowfall potential Saturday into Saturday evening.  Notice how the GFS seems to always be playing catch-up with the European model?  Here is the updated forecast for Saturday.

sat snow

and here is the total snowfall forecast over the next 4 days... With over a foot already since Monday on most mountains, we could see over 3 feet for the week on the West side of the basin.  

total snowfall

That is from the combination of 5 weak systems Monday-Saturday.  Yes that is great and we will take the train of weak storms instead of no storms.  Keep them coming!  

Long-Range:

There is not much change to the thinking for next week.  A cold trough will dig into the Eastern U.S. with a ridge over the Western U.S., and storms trying to push into CA on the backside of the ridge.  That will continue to split and weaken the storms next week.  We could see a storm Tuesday that could bring several more inches, and again Wed-Thu.  Similar to this week.

Then by the end of the week the ridge builds in stronger along the West Coast with a break in the action.  Here is the pattern on the GFS ensembles.

gfs ensembles

The trough is still close to the coast and will try to push another weakened storm into CA the weekend of the 16th.  

Then the GFS suggests the trough pushes closer to the coast by the 20th, and you can see some bigger storms showing up on the operational runs if you are running them.

gfs week 2

But let's remember that the GFS had big storms for next week, and it has been losing to the Canadian and European models in the long-range as usual.  Here is the Canadian forecast for the 20th.  Completely opposite.

canaidian week 2

That would be an even drier pattern than we have now.  The European ensemble runs are split between the Canadian and GFS.  So taking the middle the weak storms may continue.  Normally with a strong El Nino we would see those troughs in the East be more progressive and move out and not stick around like on the Canadian model.  The cold troughs in the East are helping to keep the ridge over the West that is also being pumped by the big trough North of Hawaii.

This strong El Nino however is much different than the last 2 as we have been saying.  So there are no guarantees to anything.  Look at how much colder the Eastern ENSO regions are this week compared to the same week in 1998 if you compare the 2.

el nino comparison

The water in The Eastern Pacific is also much warmer than the last 2.  Differences we have been mentioning.  What does that mean for pattern?  No one know for sure, but it is safe to say there is no guarantee we see the same weather pattern as 83 and 98.  

The good news for now is that the weak storms look to continue through next week with more snowfall piling up for us!  The other good news is there will be rain for the entire state.

2 week precip

Eventually we will get some big storms... I can't wait!  So I will keep you posted...

Stay tuned...BA

 

About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

Free OpenSnow App