Thursday Storm Recap:

The storm that came through yesterday set off some heavier rain/snow showers.  We saw snow levels dip down near lake level briefly under the heaviest cells, with a coating of snow in the higher elevations.

The Next 7 Days:

Today we begin to warm back into the 60's, then into the 70's for the weekend, and the 80's to start next week.  It will feel like summer has returned with lots of sun and warm temperatures.

Long-Range:

As I mentioned in the last post I am watching a pattern shift around the first of October.  It looks like a deep trough may dig down the West Coast.

The forecast models are in decent agreement on this pattern change, but of course it is more than a week out so we have to keep watching.  This pattern would bring in much colder air and would open the door to a storm.

The European and Canadian models show precip with the front as it pushes down from the North next weekend.  The GFS digs the trough off the West Coast and then pushes a low inland around the 5th.  The GFS would potentially be a heavier precip producer.

Either way it doesn't look like a significant snow producer, but may be a slightly more prolonged shot of some colder weather with a little snow.  Here is a look at the CFSv2 precip forecast for October.  It shows the possibility of more precip around mid-October, but shows the normal Fall pattern with the storm track in British Columbia and the Pacific NW.

So another month of teaser systems.  Later in October the probability of seeing a more significant snowfall starts to increase.  It's time to start watching closely.

Stay tuned...BA

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