Round 1 was fun.  High winds, heavy rain, and some snow...

We saw a coating of snow fall on top of Mt. Rose and Kirkwood above 9000 feet.

The next storms is actually a little stronger than the first and is quickly approaching this morning...

We will see the high winds return by this afternoon and then the heavy rains for tonight.  The difference this time is that we should see better spillover of precip over the crest and into the Tahoe Basin and Reno.

The image above is the GFS total precip forecast through Sunday afternoon.  We could see over an inch of additional rain at lake level, and 2 inches West of the lake near the crest.

Snow Levels:

The snow levels on the latest models runs do look slightly lower than with the first storm.  We could see snow levels dip to 8500 feet or even a little lower tonight into Sunday morning.  This would make the difference of whether or not we see some snow on top of most of the ski resorts this time.  Above 9000 feet we could see a foot or more of snowfall.  Above 8000 feet we could see a coating up to a foot with increases in snowfall each 100 feet you rise.

Round 3:

We will have another quick break in the heaviest precip Sunday, but showers should persist especially along the crest.  Then Sunday night the final wave of heavy precip moves in.

By Monday morning we could see another inch of rain at lake level and another 2 inches along the crest.  That makes total additional rainfall from Saturday through Monday of 2+ inches at lake level and 4+ inches along the crest, on top of what fell Friday!

Snow Levels:

Snow levels will rise during lighter precip Sunday back around 9000 feet.  Then with the colder air with the third round of heavy precip Sunday night they should drop pretty quickly to around 8000 feet, and to near 7000 feet by early morning Monday.  They could dip close to lake level at the very end before precip tapers off late Monday morning.

Total Snowfall:

To be honest I'm not spending endless hours pinpointing the snowfall at each elevation with this storm.  No ski resorts are open yet and there is no base under whatever snow does fall.  What we could see is another 1-2 feet of snow above 9000 feet with the final wave, 6-12 inches above 8000 feet and a few inches possible above 7000 feet Monday morning.

So there could be a nice base above 9000 feet by Monday, with a dramatic drop-off in snow depth below that.  If we do see a foot of snow above 8000 feet that will melt off over the next 2 weeks.

Long-Range:

High pressure builds back in by midweek with the sun returning.  Highs will warm back into the 60's by the end of the week.

Still watching for another possible pattern shift back to stormy the last week of the month.

Like I mentioned earlier in the week we will discuss some new signals emerging for the Winter forecast next week.  We had discussions in September and outlined some reasons why the Winter could bring below average snowfall.  Next week we look at some factors that could be positive for snowfall.

Stay tuned...BA

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