I apologize for leaving out the winds forecast in the last post.  There were very high East winds yesterday at the mountain tops causing lifts to close.  I sometimes get so focused on the snow I forget about the wind.

Not much has changed since the last post.  The GFS is still showing no snow Tuesday and a much weaker storm for Friday, while the European model has light snowfall Tuesday and is much wetter Friday.  

After the nice weather this weekend we have a very cold airmass digging into the West starting Monday.  The cold front looks very dry so not expecting any snowfall.  The air behind it though is very cold.  Look at the temperature anomaly for Tuesday into Wednesday.

We have highs in the 20's but it's much colder over the Northern Rockies.  It would be nice to get some snow with that cold air.  The European model still shows a chance for 1-2 inches of snow on Tuesday from a weak inside slider system sliding down from the North.  

The GFS model shows a storm moving into the Pacific NW on Thursday ahead of a 2nd low moving in Friday.  The Euro only has one large slower moving low.  Both show the storm for Friday trying to tap moisture from across the Pacific to near Hawaii.  The precip could start Thursday night and last into Friday night before the storm moves out.

The question is how much moisture makes it into our area.  The GFS below cuts off the moisture feed before it reaches us making for a much weaker storm for us.  The European and Canadian models keep the tap a bit longer with heavier amounts.  The other question is the snow levels as the warm moisture feed could keep snow levels near or above 7000 feet for most of the event.

Here is a look at the total precip forecast from the latest GFS run.

and here is the Canadian model which is closer to the European.

The European and Canadian models show enough for over a foot of snow on the West side of the lake on the mountains, and the GFS only a few inches.  So using the average here is the potential snowfall 7 days out.  A little earlier than I like to start looking at numbers, but I hate these 10+ day dry spells.

Next weekend we could see colder air move in behind the storm.  The forecast models beyond a week are all over the place on the operational runs that show the specific storms.  Overall the European model is deeper with the trough along the West Coast with the chance for stronger storms the week of the 12th, while the GFS is further North with the storm track.

We laid out this same model difference in the last post.  So we will continue to see which model forecasts better 1-2 weeks out.  We will see if we get light snowfall Tuesday, how much precip we get Friday, and if the storms continue week 2.

The overall pattern the week of the 12th is in decent agreement on the ensemble runs.  The GFS ensemble mean and the Canadian ensemble mean runs are below.

There is nothing showing up to shut the storm door in the pattern like a big ridge off the coast.  The trough is there in the NE Pacific.  We just need the storms to push far enough South to bring us snowfall.  We may see that as we head later into the month and jet stream strengthens.

Stay tuned...BA

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Geography Key:

East

Mt. Rose, Heavenly, Diamond Peak

Central

Northstar

West

Tahoe Donner, Homewood, Bear Valley, Dodge Ridge

Crest

Boreal, Donner Ski Ranch, Sugar Bowl, Squaw, Alpine, Sierra, Kirkwood

*Boreal and Donner Ski Ranch are forecast with the "West" mountains in higher snow levels events.