Over the past week the weather has been much colder over the Western U.S.

Starting yesterday as forecast we began to warm back up as high pressure builds in over the area.  High temperatures today could reach 70 degrees at lake level and 60's on the mountains.  The sunny, dry, and mild weather should continue through Wednesday.  

Thursday is when the winds should pick up ahead of a storm taking aim at the Pacific NW as a trough digs into Western North America.

We have been talking about this storm potential for about 10 days now for Thursday into Friday.  The models were back and forth with how far South the precipitation should push into CA.  On Friday most model runs were dry for the Tahoe area.  Then on Saturday they reversed and were really wet.  Sunday and into today they continue to back off on the storm with drier and drier model runs.  The latest model runs show light precipitation possible Thursday night into Friday.

GFS

Canadian

Here is a zoomed out look so you can see where the jet stream is focused with the majority of the heavy precipitation over the next week.

So that is a look at 3 of the major models all showing lighter amounts of precip this morning.  Snow levels look to be above 9000 feet Thursday night as the storm moves in and maybe falling near 7000 feet before we completely dry out.  That means we may only see a few inches of snow on the highest peaks, and maybe a coating for the rest of the mountain tops.

We will of course continue to track this storm all week since the forecast seems to change daily right now.  But not expecting anything significant at this point.

By next weekend high pressure builds back in over CA pretty quickly with temperatures warming back in to the 60's at lake level by next Sunday and beyond...

The storm this week may be the only active weather possibility for the rest of the month.  The long-range ensemble runs on several models keep the troughs near Alaska and in the East week 2 and beyond, with high pressure over the West and a forecast for a positive PNA (pacific north american) pattern.  So we may have another extended dry period starting Saturday.  But of course that could change as the long-range of the models this time of year is not that good. 

The climate models and long-range European model runs do hint at more active weather in November.  I have been enjoying looking at the 46 day European snowfall forecast.

Need something to keep me stoked about the upcoming Winter!

Stay tuned....BA