I traveled to Sacramento today for the Snowbomb ski show.  Had a lot of fun.  Picked up some new bindings!  Thank you to those who came up to say hello!

I have been watching the forecast model trends over the past 24 hours.  I am just doing a quick update this afternoon and then a full analysis tomorrow morning, with a final forecast for the Monday storm.

So far nothing looks different from my forecast in the last post yesterday for Monday.  It's a high snow level storm again that hits NW of the lake the hardest.  The 12z European model run did push a lot more precip South and East across the basin, so we will have to keep an eye on that for tomorrow.

Then looking at the Wed-Thu storm the models are still trying to figure out how much subtropical moisture gets pulled in ahead of the the cold front, and how fast the cold front moves through.  That will all affect snow levels and total precip amounts.  No change from the forecast yesterday yet, but again the 12z Euro run is much wetter.  We will have to see if that model run is just a fluke or trend for both storms.  We should see snow to lake level for the 2nd half of the storm and more spillover to the East side.

The last 2 runs of the European model also have trended towards the GFS in a possible wet storm for next weekend.  There is a ridge building over the West and the trough further West off the coast.  But low pressure off the Pacific NW coast may draw in subtropical moisture to CA if the latest model trends pan out.  That could bring heavy rain above 10,000 feet, so not sure that we want the stormy scenario for next weekend other than for water.

Overall with the pattern for Thanksgiving week if we get moisture it may be warm.  It's the pattern the following week that the long-range models are touting that could bring colder storms...

Stay tuned...BA