Light snow showers brought light accumulation to parts of the Wasatch this morning along with colder temps. Dry weather through the holiday and weekend and well into next week and then into December and perhaps into the second week of December as well.
Short Term Forecast
Hey! It snowed! Well... sorta. A few areas picked up light accumulation. Highest amounts seem to be LCC with maybe 1-2". Alta opens today so that will ski nicely on the groomers for sure. Temps are also colder so snow making should be in full swing today.
Unfortunately, warmer temps and dry weather is coming by later today and continuing essentially as far as the eye (or models) can see right now. I have nothing more to say in the short term.
The bad news is that the hopeful pattern change in early December is falling apart. Here is the latest look at individual model members:
Some members still show active weather, so there's still hope, but it's not nearly as many as we were seeing a few days ago.
We are shifting patterns a bit, but it looks like it will go from one type of ridge to another type of ridge. Here is the latest EPS (left) and GEFS (right) anomalies compared for December 4th:
Very similar solutions for this type with a ridge essentially right overhead. Here is the same view but two days later on December 6th:
The axis of the ridge moves farther east and more over the central US. Probably still dry for us in this scenario. Finally, we have December 8th:
Ridge continues to move east and trough along west coast gets closer to us. This could be a better pattern. Of course, this is all 15 days out and very likely to change. At this point, it's all we have to hang our hat on. None of this is set in stone and it is entirely possible things will change fast or we could get lucky, but at this point I'm just sharing what I'm seeing and it's not a lot of good news.
Time to perform every snow-summoning ritual you can think of.
Evan | OpenSnow
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