Utah Daily Snow

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By Evan Thayer, Forecaster Posted 6 years ago December 12, 2017

Better Signs Each Day

Summary

High Pressure remains in control for the rest of the work week. A weak system will clip northern Utah this weekend with snow showers possible. The system could help to clear out stagnant air trapped in valleys. Increasing signs of a pattern change toward the end of the month.

Short Term Forecast

Nothing new to talk about today in the short term.  High pressure ridge in control and inversions have been worsening.  That means that more pollution is trapped in the valleys.  A combination of fog, pollution, and cold air has actually been leading to light snowfall in the lower valleys.  I shared a photo of a nice dusting of "pollution snow" on our Twitter page last night.  

We are watching a system for this weekend.  It is very weak and will mostly be clipping northern Utah, however it will kick up winds, usher in cooler air aloft, and perhaps bring us some light snow.  The system is not strong enough to do us much good other than cooling down the upper elevations to allow for more around-the-clock snowmaking for a couple days.  Here is the GEFS ensembles showing a range of possible outcomes for the Upper Cottonwoods: 

One outlier going "big" with 8", but most ensembles are in the 0-2" range.  Seems to be the most likely scenario.  So perhaps some dust on crust this weekend.  The real hope is that it will scour out the valleys, pressing "reset" on the inversions.  

Extended Forecast

Ridge will briefly take control again early next week after our weak system.  Then models showing another system dropping down the east side of an amplifying ridge.  The GFS keeps this system consolidated and brings a decent storm to the region around December 21-23.  The Euro, however, cuts off the system to our west, which would severely limit snow in Utah.  Needless to say, we'll have to work out the details but it does look like we are gradually moving toward a more active pattern.  

CFS, Euro weeklies, and now 16-day ensemble mean heights are all indicating that the ridge will amplify and eventually get undercut sometime between Christmas and New Years.  This could open the door up to an active pattern.  I'm seeing quite a bit of optimistic signs of an active pattern heading into January.  Obviously this is in fantasy land and details are impossible to come by, but the overall synoptic setup is much more conducive to storms.  Let's hope it works out for us! 

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I took a look at the historical lowest snow depths for December 11 for the town of Alta.  Keep in mind that the mountain has significantly more snow than the town itself.  No surprise that we are now in first place for lowest snowdepth: 

The other years in the bottom-10 lowest snow depths on Dec 11 are also shown.  I then used the historical data for the Alta-Guard UDOT to look at the overall snowfall for the season total for those years.  The overall mean for all seasons is 497".  You can see that the other years in the top 5 all finished below normal for the season.  But still averaged over 400" of snow.  Some of the other years in the top 10 saw great turnarounds.  Overall, those other 9 years had a mean of 473.4" which is almost 2 feet less snow than the overall mean snowfall.  So yes, we are more likely to have a below average year, but that's not guaranteed.  

The interesting thing is the '79-80.  That season, we had an OK November but a horrible December with only 27" of snow.  On New Year's Day in 1980, Alta only had 29" of snow on the ground.  We then had January, Feb, and March that averaged ~130" per month and finished the season above average.  I'm not saying that's going to happen, but it certainly is possible.  Eventually we are going to turn things around...  keep the faith! 

Evan | OpenSnow

About Our Forecaster

Evan Thayer

Forecaster

To Evan, 'The Greatest Snow on Earth' is more than just a motto - it’s a way of life. In 2010, he started Wasatch Snow Forecast as a way to share the best powder days with his fellow snow-lovers. Evan brings the same quality forecasts and weather discussions to OpenSnow and hopes you enjoy skiing/riding Utah as much as he does.

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