Western US Daily Snow
By Alan Smith, Meteorologist Posted 8 hours ago July 10, 2025
Showers & T-Storms Favor the Eastern Rockies Late This Week
Summary
A cold front will slide down the eastern side of the Rockies from Thu to Sat with showers & thunderstorms favoring areas near and east of the Divide. Areas west of the Divide will see more isolated storms with light rain, though Western CO could see early AM storms on Thu. Next week, the Northern Rockies could see another uptick in storms while the monsoon slowly returns to the Southwest.
Short Term Forecast
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5-Day Temperature Outlook (July 10-14):
Temperatures will generally be warmer than average west of the Continental Divide over the next 5 days, while areas east of the Divide will be near average with hot temperatures mid-week giving way to a nice cool-down late in the week as a cold front moves through.
Wednesday Night (July 9-10):
First, I want to mention a threat of overnight and early morning thunderstorms in case anyone is planning to climb a Fourteener or other peak in the Central Rockies.
A shortwave trough will move across the Central Rockies overnight, and short-range weather models indicate enough instability in the atmosphere for showers and possibly thunderstorms to develop late in the night and into early Thursday morning.
The best chance of overnight/early morning storms will be across the Colorado Rockies near and west of the Continental Divide, as well as the Uintas in Utah and the Wind Rivers in Wyoming, and possibly as far north as the Tetons.
Thursday (July 10):
A larger trough will track across the Northern Rockies, and a cold front will also approach from the west, though the timing of the front has trended a little slower compared to prior forecasts.
The main area of showers and thunderstorms also looks to be more concentrated into two main areas... 1) the Glacier National Park region, including Flathead Lake and the Bob Marshall Wilderness, and 2) Southern Montana and Northern Wyoming, including the Madison, Gallatin, Beartooth, and Bighorn Ranges.
Instability will be somewhat limited in this pattern, so only isolated thunderstorms are expected, while shower coverage looks fairly widespread across these two regions, with locally heavy downpours possible. Rain is also possible during both the AM and PM hours.
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Further south, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the Central and Southern Rockies as the shortwave trough moves through, and this includes a potential for AM thunderstorms.
Moisture levels will not be overly impressive across this region, so most storms will produce light to moderate rainfall (brief downpours possible) along with gusty winds.
Friday (July 11):
As a trough moves across the Eastern Rockies, a cold front will slide from north to south through the Central Rockies, eventually reaching Colorado late in the day.
Moisture will increase along and east of the Continental Divide with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing, some of which will produce locally heavy rainfall. There is also an outside chance of flash flooding due to the potential for training of thunderstorms (multiple storms tracking over the same areas).
West of the Continental Divide and further south across much of New Mexico, moisture will be limited with more isolated thunderstorm activity. Storms will generally produce light rain and gusty winds.
Saturday (July 12):
The cold front will slide southward into Southern New Mexico with moisture increasing along and behind the front. An uptick in thunderstorm activity is expected across much of New Mexico, with stronger storms capable of moderate to heavy rainfall along with some flash flooding potential (Ruidoso has already seen catastrophic burn scar flash flooding this week).
Thunderstorm activity will be more isolated across most of Colorado and over Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico, with storms generally producing light rain and gusty winds.
The Northern Rockies will also dry out with little to no thunderstorm activity expected.
Sunday (July 13):
A low-grade monsoon pattern will re-emerge over the Southwest with isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing across Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado. Most storms will produce light to moderate rain along with gusty winds.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across the Sierra Nevada Range as a little bit of monsoonal moisture sneaks into the area. A few thunderstorms are also possible across Montana as a trough begins to deepen near the Canada/U.S. border.
Monday (July 14):
A trough will continue to deepen over the Northern Rockies while a cold front will also move southward into Montana. Moisture will increase behind the front, leading to a good chance of showers and thunderstorms across parts of Montana and Far Northern Wyoming, with moderate to heavy rain possible.
A low-grade monsoon circulation will continue across the Southwest with isolated thunderstorms across Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona.
Extended Forecast
July 15-23:
The pattern from July 15-19 favors below normal temperatures east of the Continental Divide due to a fairly strong cold front (by July standards) around the middle of the week, while an increase in monsoonal moisture will also favor below normal temperatures across parts of the Southwest.
Above-normal temperatures are favored across the Northwest and Great Basin, where a ridge-dominant pattern is expected.
Thunderstorm chances will also be higher across the Northern and Eastern Rockies in the wake of the mid-week trough and cold front, with above-normal precipitation favored from July 15-19.
Above-normal precipitation is also favored across the Southwest and the Southern Rockies as the monsoon begins to strengthen.
NOAA's 8-14 Day outlook favors above-normal precipitation across the Southwest and Southern Rockies from July 17-23 as the monsoon is expected to become more established during this time.
As a result, thunderstorms are likely to occur with more regularity across these regions, with an increased potential for locally heavy rainfall.
Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Friday (July 11).
Alan Smith
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