Wildfire and Smoke Update

The first significant wildland fires of the summer ignited over the weekend across the Southwest during a stretch of hot and windy weather. The two largest fires are the Telegraph and Mescal Fires, burning in Tonto National Forest east of Phoenix.

In addition, the Mammoth Fire also started in Southern Utah between Brian Head and Bryce Canyon and the Bennion Creek Fire started in the Southern Wasatch Range, southeast of Provo.

Taking a look at the OpenSummit Smoke Map (for smoke near the surface), we can see widespread smoke forecasted across not only Eastern Arizona but also across Western New Mexico and Western Colorado. If you look closely, you can see the Mammoth Fire in Southwest Utah, and also what appears to be a new fire southeast of Provo, Utah. 

The forecast for smoke in the upper atmosphere expands as far east as the I-25 corridor by Monday afternoon.

Forecast for Monday, June 7

An area of low pressure moving across the Pacific Northwest will continue to result in clouds, showers, and cool temperatures through Monday.

Check out the satellite image as of late Monday morning, where we can see clouds associated with the shower activity over Washington and Oregon. If you look closely, you can also see haze associated with wildfire smoke across the Southwest.

Also, an area of low pressure off of the California coast is resulting in a thick/persistent marine cloud layer across Southern California.

Shower activity on Monday will be most widespread in Washington, Oregon, and Northern Idaho. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms can also be expected along the Continental Divide in Colorado and Wyoming.

Forecast for Tuesday, June 8

A large trough of low pressure will continue to result in showers and below average temperatures across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. A disturbance will also move from southwest to northeast across the Northern Rockies, resulting in showers and thunderstorms across portions of Idaho and Montana, and to a lesser extent Northwest Wyoming.

A cooler airmass will also settle into place across California with below-average temperatures expected nearly statewide, while near to above-average temperatures along with dry conditions will prevail farther east across the desert and into the Central & Southern Rockies.

Forecast for Wednesday, June 9

A stronger storm system will begin to push inland across the Northwest with heavier rains and thunderstorms expected across Northern/Central Idaho and Northwest Montana, including the Bitterroots and Glacier National Park. 

Shower activity will be more spotty across the Pacific Northwest extending down into Northern California, while dry conditions will prevail across the Central and Southern Rockies.

Forecast for Thursday, June 10

Idaho and Western Montana will continue to be favored for significant precipitation with a noticeable cool-down expected as a cold front blasts through the region. Western Wyoming including the Tetons and Yellowstone will also get in on the action with showers and thunderstorms expected.

Shower activity will become less widespread across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday with some breaks possible depending on the exact timing between systems.

Colder air arriving with the Northern Rockies storm system will also result in some high elevation snow across portions of Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming on Thursday.

Forecast for Friday, June 11

The Northern Rockies will begin to dry out on Friday, while the next storm reaches the PNW Coast with more rain for Oregon, Washington, and perhaps far Northern California. 

Outlook for Saturday, June 12 - Sunday, June 13

High pressure will rebuild across the West over the weekend, and as a result, temperatures will heat back from the Rockies to the West Coast.

The Pacific Northwest will continue to see lingering showers as Friday's storm weakens but hangs around just offshore. However, temperatures will also begin to trend upward.

Colorado and New Mexico could also see some isolated thunderstorm activity return as moisture from the plains creeps up toward the Continental Divide, but only light rain is expected.

Outlook for Monday, June 14 - Friday, June 18

Next week, it looks like high pressure will continue to dominate the pattern with well-above-average temperatures and little precipitation expect across most of the West. Not the best news with pre-existing drought conditions and fire season now getting underway...

The best chances of showers will be across the Pacific Northwest where weak storms could brush the Washington Coast from time to time. Otherwise, the usual favored regions along the Continental Divide could see some isolated thunderstorm activity. 

Thanks so much for reading and check back for my next forecast on Wednesday, June 9th!

ALAN SMITH

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