First, let's start with the good news, which is the beneficial rains the Southwest has received during the early part of this week. New Mexico has seen widespread heavy rain totals recently, while portions of Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Nevada, and California have also received frequent thunderstorms and wetting rains.

An early start to the North American Monsoon (something we missed out on last year) along with an area of low pressure setting up over Utah have played a role in the uptick in rain and thunderstorms across the drought-stricken Southwest.

Check out the visible satellite image as of midday Wednesday, which depicts these features well. Thunderstorm coverage has already been fairly widespread across the Southern Rockies, Desert Southwest, and Sierra Nevadas with storms beginning prior to noon in many areas. 

The OpenSummit Forecast Radar projects extensive thunderstorm coverage across much of the West by late Wednesday afternoon.

Our 5-day and hourly forecasts are invaluable for planning outdoor adventures and highlight the days and times when rain, lightning, and strong winds are more likely.

The forecast for North Palisade in California's Sierra Nevada Range indicates high (red) potential for lightning and wetting rains on Wednesday, with a gradually decreasing risk in the days to follow.

The forecast for Grays Peak, Colorado also indicates high thunderstorm potential for each of the next 3 days, with only a slight decrease in storm potential on Saturday and Sunday.

Our trail conditions algorithm also estimates that cooler temperatures in combination with showers/thunderstorms may have resulted in light snow accumulations near the summit of Grays Peak within the past day. Just a reminder that snow can fall at any time of year at 14,000 feet!

In addition to the danger that lightning poses for outdoor adventures, we're now getting into flash flood season as well. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center highlights the risk for Excessive Rainfall and Flash Flooding across the country, and sure enough, there is at least an outside risk for flash flooding across portions of the Southwest U.S. on Wednesday.

With the threat for locally heavy rains, narrow canyons and slot canyons in the Desert Southwest will be more vulnerable to flash flooding.

The Grand Canyon forecast indicates both moderate risk for lightning and wetting rains during the next 5 days, two hazards that must both be accounted for in this part of the country during monsoon season. 

Farther north, brutally hot temperatures will continue across the Inland Northwest. Earlier this week, Seattle and Portland along with many other areas shattered their all-time record high temperatures. A new all-time record high for the entire nation of Canada was broken as well when Lytton, British Columbia recorded an unimaginable high of 121ºF (49.5ºC).

Spokane, Washington is next in line to break its all-time record with a high of 110ºF forecast for Wednesday afternoon.

Fortunately for areas west of the Cascades, a welcome marine push is occurring on Wednesday, resulting in significantly cooler temperatures near the coast. Seattle will see highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s over the next 5 days – still warmer than average, but much better than 100s! 

The wildfire and smoke situation across the Southwest and Southern Rockies has improved recently thanks to rainfall and cooler temperatures.

Currently, there are a handful of medium to large wildfires ongoing across the western-most states from California & Arizona north to Oregon/Washington/BC where recent extreme heat has contributed to fires breaking out along the eastern slopes of the Cascades and Coastal Ranges. 

Forecast for Wednesday, June 30

Anomalous/record-breaking warmth will continue across the Inland Northwest on Wednesday where strong high pressure remains in place, while the Four Corners and especially New Mexico will be much cooler than average.

Widespread thunderstorms and wetting rains can be expected from the Sierras to the Desert Southwest and Southern Rockies, with isolated "drier" thunderstorms extending into portions of the Northern Rockies.

Forecast for Thursday, July 1

Temperatures will cool off some from extreme values across the Inland Northwest and Northern Rockies but still will be hotter than average. The cooler than average pattern will persist across the Four Corners though temperatures will start to warm up compared to Wednesday. 

Moisture will surge northward into the Northern Rockies on Thursday with more widespread thunderstorms expected across Western Wyoming and portions of Idaho and Montana. Meanwhile, it will be another active day for thunderstorms across Colorado and New Mexico, especially near the Continental Divide.

Localized heavy rains and flash flooding will be possible across the Front Range especially, and possibly even the Bitterroots in Idaho/Montana.

Areas farther west from Utah to California will see less widespread activity compared to recent days, though the higher peaks are likely to see afternoon thunderstorms and lightning once again.

Forecast for Friday, July 2

A warming trend will take hold across the Southwest and Southern Rockies, while areas east of the Continental Divide in Colorado and New Mexico will remain cooler than average.

Another active day for thunderstorms is expected across the Rockies with Colorado & New Mexico expected to see the highest coverage and heaviest rainfall once again. However, the threat for flash flooding should be lower compared to prior days. 

Thunderstorm activity will be more isolated farther west from Utah to California.

Forecast for Saturday, July 3

The warming trend will continue on Saturday with a large portion of the West expected to see above-average temperatures.

Thunderstorm coverage will become more isolated across most of the West with areas near the Continental Divide from Wyoming southward expected to see the best chance of storms.

Overall, Saturday looks like the "least" active day for storms in the West over the next 5 days and should be a better day for peak-bagging as a result. However, thunderstorms should still be expected in the afternoon across the higher peaks, and an early start and close watch on the sky will remain prudent if you're planning a summit attempt. 

Forecast for Sunday, July 4

The Fourth of July will be another hot one across most of the West, with only Southern Arizona and Southern New Mexico expected to see below-average temperatures. And of course, "below average" is still hot in these areas during the summer.

Thunderstorm activity will favor mountain ranges near the Continental Divide once again on Sunday afternoon with an overall uptick in activity expected across the Northern Rockies. More isolated activity is expected the farther west one goes away from the Divide. 

Outlook for Monday, July 5 – Friday, July 9

The early part of next week (Monday & Tuesday) will feature a surge of monsoonal moisture impacting both the Four Corners region and northward into Wyoming and Eastern Idaho. As a result, thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in these areas along with the potential for wetting rains.

By late next week, moisture is expected to shift southward with a drying trend taking hold across the Central and Northern Rockies. 

Hotter than average temperatures are expected for just about the entire Western U.S. next week as high pressure takes control. 

Thanks for reading and check back in for the next forecast on Friday, July 2nd!

ALAN SMITH

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