Numerous wildfires are burning from Northern California to Idaho to British Columbia, and significant smoke is impacting areas downwind of these fires. Only areas near the West Coast are totally free of smoke right now. 

Be sure to check out our smoke maps for the latest smoke forecasts over the next 18 hours. I also recommend purpleair.com to monitor air quality levels.

Forecast Smoke (surface)

Forecast Smoke (sky)

Current Air Quality (via PurpleAir.com)

The large-scale pattern on Monday afternoon features high pressure centered over the CA/NV/AZ border region resulting in very hot temperatures, and a weak disturbance moving across the North Cascades.

By late in the week, high pressure will weaken significantly across the West and a large trough of low pressure will set up off of the Northwest Coast, resulting in a welcome cooling trend for many areas.

The good news is that rain and thunderstorm chances associated with the North American Monsoon will increase across the Southwest as the week progresses. In addition to beneficial rains, decreasing smoke should also be expected across Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado. 

On Monday, the core of the monsoonal moisture will be located across western portions of the Southwest, including the Sierras, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona.

This same region can expect the most widespread thunderstorm activity on Monday afternoon with wetting rains expected.

Current Radar

Lightning Density

Forecast Radar

As the week progresses, monsoonal moisture will gradually shift from west to east with thunderstorms becoming more common across Colorado and New Mexico.

Forecast for Monday, July 12th

The week will start out with hot temperatures across the Far West and Great Basin, while cooler temperatures (relative to average) are expected for Southern Arizona and New Mexico and for areas east of the Continental Divide.

The Southwest will be the favored area for thunderstorms on Monday afternoon, including the Sierras, Southern Great Basin, Arizona, and New Mexico. Storm coverage will be more isolated across the Central Rockies. A disturbance moving across the Northwest could also produce some thunderstorms over the North Cascades in Washington.

Heavy rain and flash flooding will be possible with stronger thunderstorms in Arizona and New Mexico. There is an outside chance of flash flooding in the North Cascades as well due to slow storm motions, especially over wildfire burn scars from recent years.

Forecast for Tuesday, July 13th

The temperature pattern will not change much on Tuesday, aside from a slight cooling trend across California and the Great Basin, and a warming trend for Eastern Colorado.

An active day of thunderstorms can be expected across the Four Corners region as monsoonal moisture shifts eastward. A disturbance moving across the Northern Rockies will also lead to an uptick in thunderstorms, with wetting rain and more widespread activity east of the Continental Divide in Montana and Wyoming.

The risk for flash flooding will expand across the Four Corners region, including many of the popular slot canyon regions in Northern Arizona and Southern Utah. The Bighorn Range in North Central Wyoming could see locally heavy rains as well.

Forecast for Wednesday, July 14th

Cooler temperatures are expected across the Four Corners region on Wednesday thanks to an active monsoon pattern, while a cooldown will also occur east of the Divide in Montana and Wyoming. In addition, the West Coast will see cooler temperatures thanks to increasing onshore flow.

The Four Corners region will once again be favored for thunderstorms and locally heavy rains. Flash flooding and lightning will be the main hazards for outdoor recreation in this pattern. This includes elevated lightning risk across the higher peaks and 14ers of Colorado, particularly the San Juan and Sangre de Christo Ranges.

Forecast for Thursday, July 15th

Cooler than average temperatures can be expected across the Washington/Oregon Coast, Four Corners region, and Eastern Colorado/New Mexico. Above-average warmth will persist across the Northern Rockies.

The Four Corners region will be favored for thunderstorms once again, though the most widespread and heaviest thunderstorm activity is expected to shift more into Arizona and New Mexico with a slight downtick across Colorado and Utah compared to prior days.

A disturbance moving across the Northern Rockies will also result in isolated "dry" thunderstorms across Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, which isn't so great for fire danger.

Forecast for Friday, July 16th

Cooler than average temperatures will prevail across the West Coast and Southwest, while areas in the Northern Rockies will see a cooling trend as well compared to prior days.

Monsoonal moisture will shift toward the east a bit on Friday with the most widespread thunderstorm activity expected across Colorado, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona. Storms will be more isolated in coverage across Utah, Wyoming, and Montana.

Outlook for Sat, July 17 - Wed, July 21

High pressure will become centered near the UT/WY/CO borders over this 5-day period with a warming trend expected again across the Northern Rockies. 

The good news is that monsoonal moisture will also increase during this time across a large portion of the West.

On Saturday, the core of the monsoonal moisture will be centered over Arizona and New Mexico, but then the northward and westward shift will ensue over the days to follow.

By early next week, monsoonal moisture is projected to surge northward into Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming and expand west into Nevada and California. As a result, the potential for "wet" thunderstorms will increase across both the Sierras and portions of the Northern Rockies (Tetons, Yellowstone, Wind Rivers, Gallatins, Beartooths, etc.), in addition to the typical monsoon regions. 

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Wednesday (7/14).

ALAN SMITH