The pattern is changing across the West this week following an active monsoon pattern for the past few weeks. Monsoonal moisture is currently retreating to the south, and will become suppressed south of the Mexican border by late in the week as a series of Pacific disturbances move across the Northwest and Northern Rockies.

Lingering monsoonal moisture will contribute to below-average temperatures for the Southern Rockies on Wednesday, while hotter than average temperatures prevail across the remainder of the West.

However, a cold front will move across the Northwest and Northern Rockies late this week, resulting in widespread below-average temperatures across these regions by Friday.

Forecast for Wednesday, August 4th

Lingering monsoonal moisture will result in showers and thunderstorms along with locally heavy rain across Southern Colorado and Northern New Mexico, especially in the Sangre de Christo Range. Across the Northern Rockies, isolated thunderstorms can be expected with light rain. 

Forecast for Thursday, August 5th

The first Pacific disturbance will move across Oregon and into Idaho with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected, while activity will be more isolated farther east into Montana and Wyoming. Showers will also reach Washington on Thursday night as the second (more northerly focused) disturbance arrives.

There will be a noticeable decrease in thunderstorm activity across Colorado and New Mexico as monsoonal moisture retreats south of the Mexico border.

Forecast for Friday, August 6th

Showers will continue across the West Coast and Cascades, while farther inland, the Northern Rockies will see fairly extensive coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Farther south, only isolated thunderstorms with light rain are expected in Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. 

Forecast for Saturday, August 7th

Showers will continue across the Olympics and Cascades on Saturday as moisture lingers from Friday's disturbance while yet another disturbance approaches as well. Thunderstorm coverage will be isolated at best across the Rockies, which should offer nice conditions for peak-bagging depending on smoke conditions. 

Forecast for Sunday, August 8th

Sunday's forecast across the Northwest and Northern Rockies is uncertain depending on the track of the next disturbance. For now, this region can expected at least a chance of showers, but coverage and rainfall rates will depend on the how far north or south the disturbance tracks.

Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico are looking mostly dry, but monsoonal moisture will start to surge across the border into Arizona with an uptick in thunderstorm coverage expected.

Outlook for Mon, Aug 9th - Fri, Aug 13th

High pressure will build across the Western U.S. next week, resulting in a warming trend with above-average temperatures expected across the board.

Monsoonal moisture will gradually start to increase across the Four Corners states next week with thunderstorm chances returning, though the pattern will be less intense compared to recent weeks. The Northern Rockies could see some shower activity early next week, followed by drier conditions for the remainder of the week.

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Friday (8/6).

ALAN SMITH

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