First, in some exciting news for All-Access subscribers, the forecast maps for wildfire smoke, cloud cover, temperatures, wind gusts, and forecast radar have been extended from 18 hours out to 2 days! This upgrade has taken effect on the OpenSummit website and will become available on the app in the next 1-2 weeks.

Now, on to the current weather...

A ridge of high pressure remains centered over the Far Western U.S. on Friday, leading to another hot day for many areas. Monsoonal moisture is rotating around the south side of the high-pressure center across New Mexico and Arizona, with fringe-level moisture extending north into Oregon. 

Temperatures are well-above-average across the Pacific Northwest with daily record highs possible on Friday afternoon. Temperatures are cooler than average across the far southwest where the monsoon is strongest, as well as east of the Divide in Colorado. 

Currently, there are Flash Flood Watches in place across Southern Arizona and New Mexico, and Excessive Heat Watches and Warnings in place from California to Washington.

As of early Friday afternoon, the strongest thunderstorms were firing up across Colorado, but Arizona and New Mexico (where the heaviest rains are expected) are starting to see some action as well.

Current Radar

Lightning Density

Forecast Radar

As we head into the weekend, high pressure will gradually break down, and by early next week a fairly substantial Pacific storm system will drop in from British Columbia and into the Northern U.S. Rockies.

By Tuesday, temperatures will be cooler than average across portions of the Northwest and Northern Rockies, especially on the eastern slopes of the Continental Divide in Montana.

Sadly, smoke continues to be an issue across a large portion fo the West. The massive California wildfires have been well-advertised for the past couple of weeks, but in recent days, wildfire activity has substantially increased across the Pacific Northwest.

Offshore (east to west) winds on Friday are resulting in heavy smoke across the Cascades and even along the coast in Washington and British Columbia. Check out the smoke forecast for early Friday evening.

On Saturday, a stronger westerly flow will take hold across the Northwest, and we'll see the focus of the smoke shift farther east into Montana and Idaho, while Seattle, Portland, and areas west of the Cascade Crest will see a decrease in smoke thanks to onshore (west to east) flow.

Forecast Smoke (surface)

Forecast Smoke (sky)

Current Air Quality

From Sunday through Tuesday, prevailing winds aloft will transport heavy smoke from California and Pacific Northwest wildfires across a large portion of the West.

Forecast for Friday, August 13th

Numerous thunderstorms with heavy rain can be expected across Arizona and New Mexico on Friday afternoon and evening with flash flooding potential for slot canyons and dry washes, as well as steep mountainous terrain.

The Front Range, central ranges, and southern ranges of Colorado will see scattered thunderstorms as well though rainfall will not be as heavy this far north. 

Fringe level monsoonal moisture has extended northwest into Nevada, California, and Southern Oregon where isolated mountain thunderstorms can be expected – unfortunately more of "dry" variety that could start new fires.

Forecast for Saturday, August 14th

A similar pattern will be in place with widespread rain and thunderstorms along with flash flooding potential across Arizona and New Mexico. Farther north, more isolated thunderstorms and lighter rains can be expected across the Sierra, Great Basin, and Central Rockies.

Forecast for Sunday, August 15th

Thunderstorm coverage will decrease a bit across Arizona and New Mexico compared to prior days, while coverage will expand across Colorado and into portions of Wyoming (Wind Rivers, Absarokas, Bighorns). The Sierra could see a bit of an uptick in storm activity as well.

North of the border, an uptick in showers and wetting rains across British Columbia indicate an approaching storm system from the northwest.

Forecast for Monday, August 16th

As the storm system approaches, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase across the Northern Rockies, while some shower activity could dip south into the Washington Cascades as well. Cooler and showery weather in Southern British Columbia should help a little bit with the fire situation there. 

Farther south, monsoonal moisture will remain in place with scattered thunderstorms across Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and a little bit into the higher terrain of California.

Forecast for Tuesday, August 17th

More widespread rain and thunderstorms can be expected across Montana and to a lesser extent, Idaho and Northern Wyoming as the storm system slowly tracks across the Northern Rockies. If you're heading north of the border (and the Canadian border is now open!), don't be shocked to see some wet snow falling across the higher elevations around Banff and Jasper National Parks.

Farther south, scattered thunderstorms can be expected across the Four Corners region once again with the heaviest rains and highest flash flood potential across Arizona and Southwest Utah. 

Outlook for Wed, Aug 18th - Sun, Aug 22nd

A slow-moving trough of low pressure will continue to linger across the Northern Rockies during the second half of next week. This system will contain Pacific moisture and will also interact with monsoonal moisture from the south to result in an active pattern across the Rockies with elevated thunderstorm potential.

Near to above-average rainfall can be expected across much of this region during the second half of next week along with cooler temperatures. It wouldn't be shocking if some wet snow fell across the higher elevation passes and peaks in the Beartooth and Wind River Ranges mid to late next week.

While a cooler pattern will prevail across the Rockies, look for temperatures to start warming back up along the West Coast during this period.

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Monday (8/16).

ALAN SMITH

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