A weak and fast-moving disturbance will bring some showers to the Cascades on Wednesday.

After that, the only notable weather feature across the West in the days to follow will be an area of low pressure near the California/Mexico/Arizona borders that will result in unsettled weather for several days, including showers and thunderstorms. 

This will not be a significant precipitation event, but hopefully, the benefits of any rain will outweigh the negatives of lightning when it comes to fire danger.

Fire season has essentially ended across the Pacific Northwest where significant precipitation fell last weekend.

However, active fires are still burning in California's Sierra Nevada Range, the largest of which are located in the southern part of the range. Smoke from these fires will drift east/northeast into the Great Basin at times.

Forecast Smoke (surface)

Forecast Smoke (sky)

Current Air Quality

A ridge of high pressure will build over the Intermountain West during the second half of this week. In addition to sunny weather for many areas, temperatures will also be above average for late September across most of the West over the next 5 days.

Forecast for Wednesday, September 22nd

A quick round of showers will move across the PNW Coast and Cascades on Wednesday, with some light shower activity also possible across the Great Basin.

Forecast for Thursday, September 23rd

An area of low pressure will meander southward toward the Mexico border with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing across SoCal and Arizona. A few stray showers/storms also couldn't be ruled out over Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico.

Forecast for Friday, September 24th

A quiet day is expected for most of the West with just some isolated shower/thunderstorm activity over SoCal, Arizona, and New Mexico.

Forecast for Saturday, September 25th

A similar pattern will remain in place with a slight uptick in showers/thunderstorms possible over SoCal, Arizona, and New Mexico. A storm system will also reach the Northwest Coast late Saturday with showers developing over the Olympics and Cascades on Saturday night. 

Forecast for Sunday, September 26th

The Northwest storm system is currently projected to impact the Olympic Peninsula with heavy rain, with light to moderate rain for the Northern Cascades on the other side of the Puget Sound. There is still a bit of uncertainty with this system, however.

An uptick in showers and thunderstorms is also projected across the SoCal Mountains, Sierra Nevada Range, and Arizona, but there is uncertainty as well depending on exactly where the previously mentioned low pressure area sets up.

Outlook for Mon, Sept 27th - Fri, Oct 1st

Next week's pattern will be most active across the Pacific Northwest where multiple storm systems are now projected to impact the coast along with the Olympic and Cascade Ranges in Washington and Oregon.

In addition to the Pacific Northwest, lingering low pressure over the Southwest should gradually move eastward with shower and thunderstorm chances expected across the Four Corners states at times.

Farther north, only weaker energy is projected to move east of the Cascades, which could result in some light shower activity across the Northern Rockies at some point.

Temperatures next week will be near average along the West Coast but above average across the Rockies and Intermountain West. As a result, snow levels will be high with any shower activity that occurs.

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Friday (9/24).

ALAN SMITH

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