Welcome to the 2022 Daily Summit! We're excited to dive into the summer season and we're planning to release lots of new and exciting features on our OpenSummit app in the coming months, so stay tuned.

Weather Highlights this Week:

• Mountain snow for Colorado and Southern Wyoming on Wednesday.
• Rain/snow returns to the Pacific Northwest on Thursday-Friday.
• Heavy mountain snow for the Northwest and Northern Rockies this weekend.
• Well-below-average temperatures for the West Coast and Northern Rockies this weekend and early next week.
• High fire danger for New Mexico on Thursday.
• High fire danger for the Colorado Front Range this weekend.

Snowpack and Drought Update:

It was an interesting winter across the West this year with most areas south of the US/Canada border receiving below-average snowfall during the actual winter months. However, we did see a late-season resurgence in April across the Northwest and Northern Rockies with above-average snowfall and well-below average temperatures.

Here is where we stand in terms of snowpack across the Western U.S. as of early May. Generally speaking, snowpack is above average across the Cascades, near average across the Northern Rockies, and below average across the Sierra, Wasatch, and Southern Rockies. 

Unfortunately, nearly the entire Western U.S. is experiencing a drought at this time, with the only exceptions being the Cascades and PNW Coast, along with far Northern Idaho and NW Montana.

A warm, dry, and windy spring has resulted in numerous wildfires already across Arizona, New Mexico, and Southeast Colorado. The Calf Canyon/Hermits Peak Fire just east of Santa Fe is the largest fire ongoing right now and had burned over 145,000 acres as of May 2.

Current Weather - Big Picture:

A low-pressure system located over Colorado is resulting in snow across the Central Rockies, especially the Front Range who is benefiting from easterly upslope winds.

We can also see a deep trough of low pressure currently located in the Gulf of Alaska. This trough will progress southward in the days to follow and a series of embedded storm systems will bring periods of rain and snow along with colder than average temperatures to much of the West this weekend.

Here is a look at the zoomed-out satellite image on Wednesday morning, where we can see moisture wrapping around the northern and eastern side of the low pressure center across Colorado and Southern Wyoming.

Have you put your skis away for the season yet? Hopefully not, because a number of resorts across the Western U.S. are still open, including Winter Park who reported 8 inches of new snow on Wednesday morning. 

Forecast for Wednesday (5/4):

Moderate snow will continue to fall across the Front Range mountains of Colorado during the day on Wednesday with lighter snow showers west of the Continental Divide. Southern/Central Wyoming areas east of the Divide will continue to see snow and rain as well. 

The Pacific Northwest will enjoy a rare dry day in an otherwise cool/wet pattern during the day on Wednesday, so get out and take advantage before the next storm approaches with rain showers reaching the West Coast and British Columbia Interior by late Wednesday night.

Unfortunately, just to the south of the storm impacting Colorado, a dry and windy pattern will develop to the west of a dryline (a sharp boundary between moist and dry air) over the Texas Panhandle, resulting in relative humidity values of 5-15% across much of New Mexico, and critical fire danger as a result. 

Forecast for Thursday (5/5):

Rain and high elevation snow will develop across the Northwest during the day on Thursday with a few thunderstorms also possible across the Inland Northwest. Light to moderate showers will extend eastward into Southern Idaho, Southwest Montana, and Northwest Wyoming on Thursday night.

Forecast for Friday (5/6):

Rain and high elevation snow showers can be expected throughout the Northwest and Northern Rockies on Friday with afternoon thunderstorms also possible across the Northern Rockies. A stronger storm will then arrive on Friday night with heavier precipitation expected across the Cascades, especially in Oregon. Snow levels will begin to lower on Friday night as well, likely dipping down to pass levels.

Forecast for Saturday (5/7) to Sunday (5/8):

Back-to-back strong and cold storm systems will impact the West over the weekend. The first system on Saturday will impact the Northwest and Northern Rockies with lower snow levels compared to prior days.

Meanwhile, Sunday's storm system will deepen further to the south and the Sierra will likely get in on the action to some extent, though models are in poor agreement on whether or not light or heavy precipitation makes it this far south. Northern Utah and Northern Colorado will likely see some rain/snow on Sunday as well.

Temperatures are going to be well below average across much of the West this weekend, especially on Sunday as cold air spills southward into California.

Significant snowfall is likely across much of the West on Saturday and Sunday. The projection below is one of the "heavier" solutions for the Sierra Nevada Range including Tahoe, but other models are projecting lighter amounts for this area, so confidence is low as a result.

Confidence is higher for significant snowfall across the remainder of the Northwest and Northern/Central Rockies.

The few remaining ski resorts that are still open across the Northwest and Central Rockies could potentially see some late-season powder days this weekend (maybe Tahoe too if we're lucky). As for backcountry skiers, keep in mind that most avalanche centers are done forecasting for the season, so be sure to evaluate conditions carefully.

Ahead of these storm systems, warmer and drier conditions along with gusty downslope winds may result in elevated fire danger across the Front Range foothills and eastern plains of Colorado on Saturday and/or Sunday.

Outlook for Monday (5/9) to Tuesday (5/10):

Rain and snow showers will likely continue across a good portion of the West on Monday, especially across the Cascades, Sierra, and Northern Rockies, while the Southern Rockies will remain in a drier pattern.

By Tuesday, we should start to see a gradual decrease in shower activity, but the pattern will remain unsettled with much colder than average temperatures persisting across much of the West.

Projected Seven-Day Precipitation and Snow Totals:

For total rain and snow amounts over the next 7 days, here are the latest projections from a blend of weather models. Once again, notice how the Sierra and Tahoe are the biggest wild cards with model averages projecting only light precipitation amounts, while the European Model (not included in the blend of models) is projecting heavier amounts.

Outlook for May 11-17:

Colder than average temperatures are likely to prevail across a good portion of the West heading into mid-May, though there are some signs that high pressure along with warmer air could start to build over the West Coast toward the end of this period.

We are not seeing any strong precipitation signals in the 1-2 week timeframe. Generally speaking, a relatively active and more progressive pattern with frequent shower chances is likely across the Northwest and Northern Central Rockies.

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Wednesday (5/11).

ALAN SMITH