Big Picture:

A trough of low pressure will exit the Rockies out onto the plains on Friday, while a ridge of high pressure will build into California and the Intermountain West, leading to a warming and drying trend for many areas.

Meanwhile, a series of shortwaves moving over the top of the ridge will track across the Northern Rockies/Montana this weekend and early next week, resulting in more unsettled weather.

The heat will also arrive this weekend, especially across Central/Northern California and the Interior Northwest. The desert will be hot as well, but that's to be expected at this time of year. Temperatures will generally be cooler east of the Continental Divide but with day-to-day fluctuations.

Forecast for Friday:

The Colorado Front Range, Sangre de Christo Range, and parts of Central Colorado will be the focus of thunderstorms on Friday with drier conditions further west as high pressure builds in.

Forecast for Saturday:

Colorado will see a drying trend on Saturday with just some isolated thunderstorms, favoring the CO/NM border region. Further north, a shortwave will move across the Northern Rockies, resulting in isolated to scattered thunderstorms across Central/Eastern Idaho, Southwest Montana, and Northwest Wyoming.

Forecast for Sunday:

Thunderstorm chances will increase slightly near the Continental Divide in Colorado and New Mexico, though coverage will still be fairly isolated. Generally dry conditions can be expected for the remainder of the West.

Forecast for Monday-Tuesday:

The pattern will turn a bit more active for the Northern, Central, and Eastern Rockies heading into the Fourth of July Holiday (on Tuesday) as a more potent shortwave arrives from the northwest. This will result in better chances of showers and thunderstorms, especially near and east of the Continental Divide. A cold front will also cool things down east of the Divide for the Fourth on Tuesday.

Further west, a dry pattern with above-average conditions will continue. Other than the heat (depending on location/elevation), the weather does not look to be a big factor across the West Coast states for the Fourth of July.

Outlook for Wednesday (July 5) to Sunday (July 9):

A similar pattern will remain in place through the second half of next week with a northwest flow in place across the Rockies, allowing disturbances to arrive with showers/thunderstorms favoring the Northern Rockies and areas near/east of the Divide across the Central Rockies. 

Drier weather will prevail across the Desert Southwest as the monsoon will be arriving later than usual this year, while the higher terrain of California could potentially see some thunderstorms at times.

Temperatures will continue to run warmer than average across the Pacific Northwest and NorCal, while a weak trough is expected to set up near SoCal with temperatures trending below average. Temperatures are also expected to be cooler than average near and east of the Continental Divide.

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Monday (July 3).

Alan Smith