Big Picture Weather Pattern:

Low pressure troughs continue to track across the Northwest and Northern Rockies every couple of days, bringing cool and unsettled weather to these regions, while high pressure is keeping conditions warmer and drier across the Southwest.

The next trough on Saturday will be on the weaker side with showers primarily confined to the Washington Cascades and BC. On Sunday and Monday, a more potent trough will move across the Pacific Northwest with significant rainfall expected.

Over the south, easterly winds will transport moisture from the Gulf of Mexico toward the Front Range of Colorado on Friday and Saturday, resulting in isolated to scattered thunderstorms favoring areas along the eastern slopes of the mountains. Hot and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest.

5-Day Precipitation Forecast:

The Cascades and Pacific Northwest will see the highest rainfall totals over the next 5 days, while the Northern Rockies will also pick up impressive rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms will be more isolated in coverage further south with light and spotty rainfall accumulations.

Outlook for the Pacific Northwest:

This system will be an impressive rain producer for so late in the season. Rain (and liquid-equivalent snow) totals over the next 5 days will range from 2-5 inches in the Cascades, Olympics, and BC Coast Range, while the western lowlands including Seattle and Portland will pick up 1-2 inches of rain. Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho will pick up 0.5-1.5 inches of rain.

Sunday and Monday will be the wettest days of this pattern. Hood River, Oregon (left image) is expected to see rain from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon and we are forecasting a 2-day total of 1.10 inches. The top of Mt. Rainier (right image) will experience severe winter conditions, including heavy snowfall and high winds.

During the colder sector of the storm on Monday, snow levels will drop to 4,000-5,000 feet across Washington and 6,000-7,000 feet across Oregon. 

West-Wide Forecast for Fri (May 31) to Sat (Jun 1):

Light showers will develop across the Northern Cascades and Olympics with more widespread showers in Western and Central BC. The eastern ranges of Colorado and New Mexico will also see isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms on both days, with the potential for storms to become severe (large hail and damaging winds) as they move out onto the adjacent plains. The rest of the West looks dry.

Forecast for Sun (Jun 2) to Mon (Jun 3):

The second stronger storm will move into the Northwest with heavy rain developing from the Cascades into Idaho on both Sunday and Monday. Further east, scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Rockies on Sunday will give way to more numerous showers and storms on Monday and Monday night.

Conditions will dry out further south across Colorado, while Northern Utah could see some light showers on the southern fringe of the system.  

Forecast for Tue (Jun 4) to Wed (Jun 5):

Lingering showers will remain possible across the Cascades and Northern Rockies on Tuesday, at least during the morning hours. Some of this activity may reach Northern Colorado as well. Snow levels in the Northern Rockies will drop as low as 5,000 feet around Glacier and 8,000 feet near the MT/WY border.

A drying trend will begin on Wednesday throughout the West and temperatures will also be on the upswing.

Outlook for Thu (Jun 6) to Mon (Jun 10):

A strong ridge of high pressure will set up over the West late next week, resulting in above-average temperatures and dry conditions for most areas. Significant heat is likely across the lower elevations.

Most areas will stay dry in this pattern, but the eastern ranges of Colorado and New Mexico could see additional moisture intrusions from the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in occasional thunderstorms.

Thanks so much for reading and have a great weekend! Next update on Monday (June 3).

Alan Smith

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